- USD / TRY is moving higher to the 7.75 level on Monday.
- The 7.60 level emerges as strong support so far.
- All the attention is on the CBRT meeting on November 19.
The Turkish lira cuts some of its recent strong gains and pushes the USD/TRY back to the 7.70 / 75 zone at the beginning of the week.
USD / TRY focused on CBRT, politics
After three consecutive daily pullbacks, USD / TRY manages to gather some traction to the upside and bounces away from recent 2-month lows around 7.60 (Nov 13). In fact, investors appear to be making some gains after the lira’s 10% rally over the past week.
In fact, the lira drastically reversed recent weakness and sparked a sharp rally following the shakeup in the Turkish economic team after President Erdogan replaced the CBRT governor and Finmin B.Albayrak resigned.
Also supporting the bullish momentum around TRY, President Erdogan announced a new economic growth strategy supported by international investment and financial stability.
Furthermore, the market consensus expects the Turkish central bank to raise the one-week buyback rate by at least 500 basis points at its November 19 meeting (currently at 10.25%).
Technical levels
At the moment, the pair is up 1.47% to 7.7520 and faces the next hurdle at 7.8174 (55-day SMA) followed by 8.5777 (all-time high on Nov. 6). On the downside, a drop below 7.5985 (Nov. 16 monthly low) would expose 7.4741 (100-day SMA) and then 72019 (Aug. 21 low).
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