USD/JPY Forecast: Buyers try to challenge December high at 158.07

  • Tepid data from China weighed on market sentiment at the start of the day.
  • Expectations of higher US Treasury yields undermine JPY demand.
  • USD/JPY is trading near the multi-month high reached in December and is aiming to break higher.

The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 157.84 on Thursday, holding not far from December’s multi-month high of 158.07 at the end of the day. Market participants remained focused on US political uncertainty as former President Donald Trump prepares to take office, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue.

The Japanese yen suffered from growing speculation that the upcoming Trump presidency will maintain inflationary pressures, resulting in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer. In its December statement, the US Central Bank already hinted at just two possible rate cuts this year, halving the four cuts planned three months earlier. Expectations of higher Treasury yields kept the Dollar on the winning side.

Tepid data from China released earlier in the day stoked the negative mood. The country’s December Caixin Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 50.5, down from 51.7 previously and falling short of the 51.7 expected by market players.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

USD/JPY posted a higher high and a higher low on a daily basis, supporting a bullish continuation, particularly if the pair surpasses the December high of 157.92 (December 20). Gains beyond the latter expose the weekly high of 158.85 (July 16). Further up, the 2024 peak of 161.95 (July 3) comes before the round level of 162.00. Initial support lies at the aforementioned intraday low, followed by the key 200-day SMA at 152.29, which precedes the December low of 148.63 (December 3) and the weekly low of 141.64 (September 30). If this level is broken, the market may fall to the 2024 low of 139.57 (September 16). On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is pointing north around 56, indicating that further gains are likely in the near term.

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against major currencies today. Japanese yen was the strongest currency against the British pound.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.90% 1.19% 0.14% 0.14% -0.18% 0.06% 0.67%
EUR -0.90% 0.22% -0.68% -0.77% -1.03% -0.87% -0.22%
GBP -1.19% -0.22% -0.94% -1.03% -1.35% -1.11% -0.55%
JPY -0.14% 0.68% 0.94% -0.08% -0.40% -0.22% 0.39%
CAD -0.14% 0.77% 1.03% 0.08% -0.32% -0.12% 0.51%
AUD 0.18% 1.03% 1.35% 0.40% 0.32% 0.16% 0.63%
NZD -0.06% 0.87% 1.11% 0.22% 0.12% -0.16% 0.68%
CHF -0.67% 0.22% 0.55% -0.39% -0.51% -0.63% -0.68%

The heat map shows percentage changes for major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you choose the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Source: Fx Street

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