USD/INR to hover around the 83.00 region before moving more convincingly towards 82.00 in the second half – MUFG

The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened marginally against the US Dollar (USD) in February 2024. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the outlook for USD/INR.

USD/INR to fall to 81.50 by the end of the year

In the near term, in the first quarter of 2024, we expect USD/INR to hover around the 83.00 level as the Reserve Bank of India rebuilds foreign exchange reserves, before moving more convincingly towards the 82.00 level as The US dollar may weaken in the second half of 2024.

We maintain our constructive view on INR and see the balance of risks tilting towards INR strength. We expect USD/INR to fall to 81.50 by the end of the year, although the RBI continues to actively intervene to limit the extent of appreciation.

USD/INR – first quarter of 2024 83.00 second quarter of 2024 82.50 third quarter of 2024 82.00 fourth quarter of 2024 81.50

Source: Fx Street

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