USD/CAD remains stable while the US dollar falls due to concerns on tariffs and mixed data

  • The USD/CAD quotes near the 1,3900 zone in the middle of the continuous weakness of the dollar.
  • Fed officials highlight the risks driven by tariffs, while the data of durable goods send mixed signals.
  • The key resistance is grouped by about 1,3905 and 1,4000, with support in 1,3865 and 1,3848.

The USD/CAD pair was observed around the 1,3900 zone on Thursday, slightly down on the day, since the US dollar (USD) struggles to maintain the impulse in the middle of the renewed uncertainty about tariffs and contradictory economic signs of the US Among investors. The feeling of the Canadian dollar (CAD), meanwhile, remains stable but lacks the bullish force shown by other important currencies, since the pair is maintained inside a close consolidation band established at the beginning of the week.

The governor of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Waller, adopted a cautious tone on Thursday, suggesting that tariffs could distort the dynamics of the labor market and weigh on corporate hiring decisions. He emphasized that many companies remain frozen due to political uncertainty and warned that rates cuts could eventually follow if unemployment begins to increase. Meanwhile, the president of Cleveland’s Fed, Beth Hammack, reiterated the call to patience, hinting possible adjustments as soon as in June if economic conditions justify it.

In terms of economic data, the requests for lasting goods from the US increased by 9.2% in March, far exceeding expectations. However, the central figure excluding transportation remained flat, moderating enthusiasm. Separately, initial unemployment requests increased to 222K, reflecting a slight weakening in labor market conditions. Despite the impulse driven by the data, the feeling of the USD was mostly eclipsed by the ongoing debate on commercial policy. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Besent reiterated that there had been no concessions to China on tariffs, underlining the lack of progress in negotiations and weighing on the DXY, which slid about 99.30.

Technical perspective

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD maintains a bassist tone. The relative force index (RSI) is in neutral territory around 37, recovering from overall conditions, while the MACD continues to point down. The impulse offers a slight counterweight with a slight purchase signal, although the stochastic K K remains containing about over -sales levels.

Trends monitoring indicators reinforce the downward inclination. Simple mobile socks (SMA) of 20 days, 100 days and 200 days, along with the exponential mobile socks (EMA) of 10 days and 30 days, are all inclined down, limiting the upward attempts. Resistance is observed in 1,3905, followed by the area of ​​1,4002–1.4009, while the support is found in 1,3865 and 1,3848. A clear rupture below this range could expose the torque to a higher decline, pointing to the region of 1,3745 below.

In summary, unless clearer advances arise in commercial conversations or macroeconomic data significantly change expectations, the USD/CAD could continue to slide within its current range, with risks inclined downward.

Daily graph

Source: Fx Street

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