USD/CAD Price analysis: the dollar falls while the political pressure on Fed increases

  • The USD/CAD quotes near the 1,3800 area, under pressure after Trump’s renewed criticisms to the Fed.
  • Concerns for political interference and tariff threats weigh strongly over the US dollar.
  • The bass technical indicators suggest more falls; Resistance in 1,3805, 1,3934 and 1,3938.

The USD/CAD pair continues to descend on Monday, quoting near the level of 1,3800 while the US dollar remains defensive after a wave of political holders. The president of the USA, Donald Trump, strongly criticized the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, accusing him of trimming rates for political reasons in the late 2024. The renewed pressure on the independence of the Fed arrives just before the May Bank of the Central Bank, with the markets firmly waiting for no changes in the current rate.

Further complicating the feeling, the president of the Fed of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, said an increase in short -term inflation expectations, reinforcing the need for caution. Meanwhile, operators are also digging global holders related to US commercial policy, since the Trump administration advances with tariff discussions and faces resistance from important partners before this week’s G20 meetings in Washington. The General State of Risk Aversion favors the Canadian dollar, even while crude oil weakens.

In the Technical Front, the USD/CAD shows a bassist general structure. The price action is maintained within the daily range of 1,3781–1.3852. The relative force index (RSI) marks 31, suggesting a neutral momentum with a bearish inclination, since it is located on the overall threshold. The convergence/divergence indicator of mobile socks (MACD) is issuing a sales signal, backed by a negative reading of Momentum (10) of -0.0444. Although the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral at -0.0346, the weight of the short and long term mobile socks underlines the downward bias.

The sales pressure is backed by bass signals of the 10 -day EMA in 1,3934 and the 10 -day SMA in 1,3938. The largest mobile socks also inclined downward, with the 20 -day SMA in 1,4103, the 100 -day in 1,4278 and the 200 -day in 1,4006. The immediate resistance is located in 1,3805, followed by 1,3934 and 1,3938.

Daily graph

Source: Fx Street

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