USD/CAD Price analysis: The Canadian dollar fights about 1.40 in the middle of weak inflation and commercial uncertainty

• The USD/CAD is negotiated near the 1.4000 area after bouncing since mid -1.38 earlier this week.
• The softer Canadian inflation and Powell’s fees warnings press the perspective of the Canadian dollar.
• The key resistance is at 1,4060; The technical background leans down despite the recent rebound.

The USD/CAD remained near the 1.4000 area on Tuesday, consolidating after recovering from previous minimums around the 1,3850 region. The Canadian dollar failed to win traction despite a colder inflation report than expected for March, while the operators prepare for the politics decision of the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the US dollar tried a slight rebound after days of losses linked to ongoing commercial tensions with China.

The Canada inflation rate was slowed to 2.3% annually in March, below expectations and lowering from the previous 2.6%. Month by month, the CPI rose only 0.3%, failing in the 0.7%prognosis. The data has slightly softened market expectations that Boc will maintain stable rates at 2.75% at its first policy meeting since June. The markets will closely observe the tone of Governor Macklem, especially as the uncertainty about how Trump’s aggressive rates policy increases could have an impact on Canada’s economic perspective.

On the US side, the dollar faces persistent pressure from global investors as Trump’s climbing continues to undermine confidence. According to Commerzbank analysts, the complexity and unpredictability of the current US trade policy are increasing the risks of inflation while damaging confidence among global commercial partners. The president of the Fed, Powell, echoed these concerns, warning that the inflationary effects of the rates could be stronger and prolonged than initially expected. He added that it is too early to determine the right path for interest rates and that the Fed is not in a hurry to act.

Technically, the USD/CAD shows bearish signs in general, even with a modest gain in the day. The torque is negotiated near the top of its daily range between 1,3850 and 1,3980. The relative force index is about 37 in neutral territory, while the MACD prints a sales signal. Despite some mixed signs of impulse indicators, mobile socks reinforce the downward perspective: the Smas of 20, 100 and 200 days, together with the EMA of 10 days, suggest additional weakness ahead. The support is found in 1,3827, while resistance levels are located at 1,4002, 1,4060 and 1,4063.

Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD