United States CPI Forecast: Higher-than-expected inflation data will cause an upward movement of the Dollar – MUFG

Today the key data of the week is published: the report on the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI). The economists of MUFG Bank analyze how inflation figures could affect the US dollar (USD).

Limited room for dollar weakness

A good inflation data today will be enough to stop the rise in yields in the short term, but a much weaker CPI would be needed to cause a deeper drop in yields that would weaken the Dollar.

A rate cut in March looks like a lost cause, but if CPI is too weak, May will be back in play. However, with the ECB yet to completely rule out a cut in April, we see limited room for dollar weakness.

A high CPI seems more likely to cause a further dollar move higher, as a cut in May would be further called into question..

Source: Fx Street

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