Understand why a military invasion by Maduro in Essequibo in Guyana is unlikely

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro promulgated, on Wednesday (3), a law that creates a Venezuelan region within the territory of Essequibo, which is internationally recognized as part of Guyana.

However, in the assessment of Vitelio Brustolin, a researcher at Harvard University, a military invasion by Maduro into Guyanese territory is “highly unlikely” – and this is due more to a technical issue than an ideological one.

Essequibo, region of dispute between Venezuela and Guyana

“Much of the 800-kilometer border between Venezuela and Essequibo is in dense jungle territory, which is difficult to access. It is almost impenetrable, if not for small units [militares]”, he explained to CNN.

“So operations with armored vehicles, which is the standard for taking territories, are prohibitive because of the dense jungle,” added Brustolin, who is a professor of International Relations at the Fluminense Federal University (UFF).

He adds that, in addition to being a highly difficult operation, the Venezuelan military would have to pass through Brazilian territory to effectively invade Essequibo, as there is no direct road between Venezuela and Guyana.

“Brazil has already sent 28 armored vehicles there to defend the border with Venezuela, sending 130 to 150 men, who have already been incorporated into the 1st Jungle Infantry Brigade, which has around 5 thousand soldiers. So Brazil would block an attempt by Maduro to gain access to Guyana”, he pointed out.

A CNN reported that, at the end of last year, the Brazilian Army sent 16 armored vehicles to add to the 12 vehicles that were already in the region. In February this year, another 20 armored vehicles and trucks were sent.

A CNN showed through satellite images that Venezuela, despite having agreed with Guyana not to use force in this dispute, has been accumulating troops on the border with the neighboring country.

In Professor Brustolin's assessment, although very unlikely, the best possibility for Maduro to invade Essequibo would be to combine air attacks on the few urban centers in the territory, with an amphibious landing across the Caribbean Sea.

Venezuela has in its air fleet, for example, five C-130 Hercules and eight Shaanxi Y-8 military aircraft, in addition to seven amphibious landing ships, he reported.

“In any case, as soon as Maduro tried to do something like that, there would be international intervention, because the United States, England, several countries around the world have already spoken out about it”, he pondered.

“What Maduro is doing is a smokescreen, as he has done on other occasions. In fact, if Maduro attempts a military invasion operation at this time, the most likely consequence is that he will be removed from office and will pay for all the crimes he has committed to date against the Venezuelan population,” he concluded.

Maduro promulgates law annexing Essequibo

The President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, promulgated on Wednesday (3) the so-called Organic Law for the Defense of Essequibo, which creates a Venezuelan region within the territory internationally recognized as part of Guyana.

The text has 39 articles that regulate the founding of “Guiana Essequiba”, as the territory is called by Venezuelans.

Article 25 of the enacted law prevents supporters of the Guyanese government from holding public or elected positions, which creates a layer of protection for Venezuela against critics of the annexation project.

The creation of the law began to be officially discussed in December 2023, in the National Assembly, which proposed the creation of a Venezuelan province in Essequibo.

Also in December, the Venezuelan government held a referendum in which 95% of voters present voted in favor of incorporating the Guyanese territory into Venezuela.

The endorsement of the referendum would give Venezuela permission to explore oil there. Venezuela's electoral authorities said more than 10 million Venezuelans voted in the referendum.

“After the people demonstrated constitutionally on December 3, the National Assembly did what it had to do, expanded the call for consultation on the Organic Law for the Defense of Guyana Esequiba,” said Maduro.

Guyana says the enacted law is an illegal act

Guyana considered the law promulgated by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro an “illegal act” and stated that it will not allow the annexation of the territory of Essequibo by the neighboring country.

President Irfaan Ali released a statement from the Guyanese government signed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on social media.

“Venezuela’s attempt to annex more than two-thirds of the sovereign territory of Guyana and make them part of Venezuela is a flagrant violation of the most fundamental principles of international law,” the statement writes, citing the Charters of the United Nations (U.N. ) and the Organization of American States (OAS).

Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana, and Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela, greet each other after a meeting on the dispute over Essequibo in Saint Vincent and the Grenadine

“[A lei promulgada] it also contradicts the spirit of the Argyle Joint Declaration for Dialogue and Peace between Guyana and Venezuela, agreed on December 14, 2023 in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. This illegal act calls into question Venezuela’s duty to respect the principles of this Declaration”, he adds.

The statement cited in the statement refers to the meeting between Ali and Maduro in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, in December last year, when the two leaders agreed that they would not use force in the dispute over Essequibo.

The government of Guyana, in its statement on Wednesday (3), also warned Venezuela – as well as the countries of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac) and the secretaries-general of the UN and OAS – which “will not allow the annexation, seizure or occupation of any part of its sovereign territory”.

“It is regrettable that the commitment made in Argyle to “the pursuit of good neighborliness, peaceful coexistence and the unity of Latin America and the Caribbean” is now again seriously threatened by the words and actions of President Maduro”, concludes the text.

Source: CNN Brasil

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