As the United States approaches the presidential election, anticipation grows around the world about who will occupy the Oval Office of the White House, Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris.
After all, the outcome of the November 5 dispute should affect not only the course of American domestic politics, but also several countries that maintain close relations with the world’s greatest economic and military power, including Brazil.
In the final stretch of the campaign, it is still unclear who will be appointed to occupy the offices of a possible Kamala or Trump government, including for matters related to Latin America and Brazil, but international relations experts are already making some projections.
Environment
Kamala Harris is likely to inherit part of President Joe Biden’s team and also continue some of his policies. Throughout the campaign and her term as vice president, Harris adopted a pro-climate and environmental stance, one of the issues on which Brazil has the greatest international presence.
Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Institute at the Wilson Center, a think tank accredited by the US Congress, believes that the current governments’ energy transition and green investment agenda should continue if the Democratic Party wins. An example of this alignment is the Climate Partnership signed in July by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which aims to advance international cooperation to address the climate crisis.
Donald Trump’s campaign promised on Friday (30) to reverse many of the Biden administration’s climate initiatives if he returns to the White House, while also speeding up approvals for power plants to meet the country’s growing electricity demand.
The former president’s campaign has also already announced that, under Trump’s presidency, the United States could once again leave the Paris Agreement. “The environmental agenda should be removed from the agenda, and, with that, Brazil will gain even more regional leadership on this issue, especially within forums such as the G20 and the COP,” says Bruna.
Relationship with China
Regardless of who wins the election, the United States must also keep a close eye on Brazil’s relationship with China and other adversaries of the U.S. government. China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) recently signaled that he may join China’s Belt and Road Initiative mega-infrastructure project, which the United States opposes.
The US government should also monitor the developments of the BRICS, a bloc formed by Brazil, China, Russia, India, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iran, from afar. At the group’s last summit, leaders made progress in discussions on the use of alternative currencies to the dollar to reduce dependence on the US currency for international negotiations.
Global market
During the presidential race, Trump also criticized other international cooperation mechanisms, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The former president promised to reduce US investment in the security alliance, which caused concern among European countries, especially amid the war in Ukraine. If the United States, Ukraine’s biggest ally, were to reduce security investments in Europe, the impacts on several global chains could also affect Brazil.
In 2022, for example, the global food market was affected by the conflict between Kiev and Moscow. Brazil saw an increase in fertilizer prices and fears of shortages of inputs sent by Russia, the largest supplier of the product to the Brazilian market. Brazil also depends on more than 5 million tons of wheat from Ukraine.
Therefore, the actions of the United States in relation to issues not linked to Brazil can also have indirect repercussions on the country.
Stable foreign policy
Despite the different proposals of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for American domestic policy, experts in International Relations point out that the relationship between the Brazilian State and the United States should remain stable regardless of who wins the race for the presidency.
After the 2018 election, for example, former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Donald Trump cultivated a closer relationship, which cooled with the election of President Joe Biden in 2020, and was resumed with Lula’s victory in 2022.
International Relations professor Carlos Gustavo Poggio highlights that American foreign policy has undergone few major transformations in recent years and, although alternating electoral calendars provide moments of alignment and occasional distancing between leaders, trade and investment relations and even Brazil’s alignment with the United States in international forums have not seen significant changes.
Bruna Santos explains: “the two countries have a bilateral relationship structure that is consolidated, institutionalized and that does not necessarily depend solely on presidential diplomacy to exist”.
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This content was originally published in Understand how the elections in the United States can affect Brazil on the CNN Brasil website.
Source: CNN Brasil
Bruce Belcher is a seasoned author with over 5 years of experience in world news. He writes for online news websites and provides in-depth analysis on the world stock market. Bruce is known for his insightful perspectives and commitment to keeping the public informed.
