Ukraine is expected to see its wheat production fall by 40% for the period 2022-2023, the Ukrainian Grain Union announced today, while exports are expected to fall by 50% due to the war with Russia.
The union, which includes grain producers and exporters, said it estimated it was harvesting 19.2 million tonnes of wheat this year, “well below the record” of 2021-2022, where it collected 33 million tonnes.
“Despite the possession of land and minefields, Ukraine will be supplied with grain and will be able to export part of the crop,” the union said in a statement.
With 19 million tons, production remains three times the annual annual consumption of wheat in Ukraine. To this production are added the stocks of the previous harvest, which still amount to 10 million tons, according to the same source.
In terms of exports, these could amount to 10 million tonnes of wheat for the period 2022/2023, according to the union. For the period 2021/2022, Ukraine exported 20 million tons, according to the report WASDE (Estimates of global agricultural supply and demand) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The 2022/23 corn crop is expected to reach 26.1 million, up from 37.6 million tonnes last year (-30%), with almost 15 million tonnes for export, according to the Ukrainian union.
According to WASDE, Ukraine exported 27.5 million tonnes of corn in 2021/2022, for a production of 41.9 million tonnes.
Before the start of the war, Ukraine was the fourth largest exporter of wheat and corn in the world.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has pitted two grain superpowers since February 24 – Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of world grain exports. The conflict caused a sharp rise in cereal and oil prices, which exceeded levels recorded during the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings and the 2008 “food riots”.
The UN fears a “famine”, mainly in African countries that have imported more than half of their wheat from Ukraine or Russia.
SOURCE: AMPE
Source: Capital
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