Ukraine: The cost of war six months after the invasion

The effects of war on people’s lives and on the global economy are huge and devastating. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 has left behind tens of thousands of dead, millions displaced while it has sown economic turmoil throughout the world.

The main effects of the war as it enters its seventh month:

Dead

From February 24, in total 5,587 civilians it is recorded that they have been killed and 7,890 that they have been injured, although the actual casualties are much higher, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) announced on 22 August. Most of those who were killed or injured were victims of explosive weapons, such as artillery shells, rockets and airstrikes, according to OHCHR.

The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzny, announced yesterday, Monday, that almost 9,000 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been killed in the war, in the first tally made public by the highest echelons of the Ukrainian forces since Russian invasion. He did not elaborate further.

THE Russia it has not announced how many of its own soldiers have been killed.

US intelligence agencies estimate that approx 15,000 Russians soldiers have been killed so far in Ukraine and that three times as many have been injured. So many had been killed in the ranks of the Soviet army during Moscow’s occupation of Afghanistan in 1979-1989.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in 2014 after the country’s pro-Russian president was ousted in Kiev’s Maidan Square uprising and Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, with Moscow-backed forces fighting Ukraine’s armed forces. About 14,000 were killed there from 2014 to the end of 2021, according to the OHCHR. Of these, 3,106 were civilians.

Misfortune

As reported by the Athens News Agency, since February 24, a third of the citizens of Ukraine, whose population amounts to more than 41 million, have been forced to leave their home, in the largest displacement crisis worldwide in the current period, according to his High Commission UN for Refugees (UNHCR).

Today, more than 6.6 million refugees from Ukraine have been registered in Europe. Most in Poland, Russia and Germany, according to UNHCR data.

Ukraine

In addition to the human toll, Ukraine has lost control of about 22 percent of its territory to Russia since annexing Crimea in 2014, according to Reuters calculations.

It has lost part of its coastline, the economy it has been crippled and some cities have been deserted due to the Russian bombings. Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 45% in 2022, according to World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates. The actual cost to Ukraine in dollars remains unclear. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal said in July that the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the war would be about $750 billion. It can be much higher. It is also unclear how much Ukraine has spent on the war.

Russia

The war is costly for Russia too – although it does not disclose the cost, which is a state secret.

In addition to military spending, the West is trying to punish Moscow by imposing severe sanctions, the biggest shock to the Russian economy since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia’s central bank now predicts that the 1.8 Its trillion-dollar economy will shrink by 4%-6% in 2022, less than the 8%-10% it forecast in April. However, the impact on Russia’s economy remains large – and still not entirely clear. It has been shut out of Western financial markets, most of its oligarchs have been sanctioned, and it faces supply problems for some products, such as microchips.

Last month Russia defaulted on paying foreigners bonds for the first time since the disastrous months following the October Revolution in 1917.

Prices

The invasion and the westerns sanctions in Russia have led to sharp increases in the prices of fertilizers, wheat, metals and energy, fueling both a coming food crisis and an inflationary wave in the global economy.

Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter after Russia Saudi Arabia and the number one exporter of natural gas, wheat, nitrogen fertilizers and palladium. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, international oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2008 records.

Efforts to reduce dependence on Russian oil, gas and petroleum products – or even to impose a ceiling on their prices – have exacerbated the already most severe energy crisis since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s.

After Russia cut gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Germany, wholesale gas prices in Europe soared.

A complete shutdown would sink her eurozone in recession, with sharp contractions in both Germany and Italy, according to Goldman Sachs.

Development

The International Monetary Fund now predicts development 3.2% of the global economy this year, down from 6.1% last year and significantly below its April forecast of 3.6%, its January forecast of 4.4% and its October forecast of 4.9 %.

Under a “realistic” alternative scenario, which includes a complete cutoff of Russian gas supplies to Europe by the end of the year and a further 30% cut in Russian oil exports, the IMF notes that global growth will slow to 2.6% in 2022 and 2% in 2023, with almost zero growth in Europe and the US next year.

Western Weapons

The USA have provided approximately $9.1 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since February 24, includingi anti-aircraft Stinger systems, Javelin anti-tank systems, 155mm Howitzers and protective equipment for biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

The next biggest donor to Ukraine is Britain, which has provided £2.3 billion to military support. The European Union has agreed to provide 2.5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine.