Ukraine says it has conquered as much territory as Russia this year; understand

A week after Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russian territory, it is increasingly clear that Moscow does not have the situation under control.

Tens of thousands of Russians were forced to flee their homes as Ukrainian troops continued to advance into Russian territory over the weekend and into Monday (12).

The incursion – the first time foreign troops have entered Russian territory since World War II – is a major embarrassment for the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to “expel the enemy” from Russia, but his troops have so far failed to halt the Ukrainian advance.

What happened?

The first reports of Ukrainian troops crossing into Russia’s Kursk region, just north of the Ukrainian border, began to emerge on Tuesday (6). But it was only several days later that Kiev officially acknowledged that its military forces were operating inside Russia.

The incursion marked a notable shift in tactics by Kiev. The Ukrainian military has in the past regularly attacked targets inside Russia with drones and missiles, and there have been limited strikes by Ukraine-aligned Russians, but until last week it had not carried out official ground incursions across the border.

On Monday (12), Kiev claimed control over about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. In terms of size, it is similar to the amount of Ukrainian territory Russia has managed to seize so far this year, estimated by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) at 1,175 square kilometers.

Still, the area is small compared to the more than 100,000 square kilometers, or 18% of Ukraine’s total territory, seized by Russia since the conflict began in 2014.

Why is Kiev doing this?

The purpose of the incursion remains a mystery. Kiev is likely trying to achieve several goals: retaking the field and boosting the morale of its troops, while also diverting attention from Russia and embarrassing Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said over the weekend that the incursion was a way to “put pressure on the aggressor.”

On Monday, he added that it was “fair” and beneficial to destroy Russian positions used to launch attacks on Ukraine, saying thousands had been launched from the Kursk region since early June.

“Russia must be forced to seek peace if Putin wants to continue waging war with such intensity,” he said.

Ukraine has faced increasing pressure along the frontline even as long-awaited U.S. military aid has arrived. Moscow’s slow and attritional offensive along the entire frontline has forced Ukraine to commit to defensive operations rather than prepare for a counteroffensive.

Russia’s advances were towards several strategically important cities and roads in eastern Ukraine.

How did Putin react?

The escalation of the crisis became clear on Monday when Putin held a tense meeting with top security and government officials and the heads of border regions, vowing to “drive out the enemy”.

A video of the meeting released by the Kremlin shows Putin berating his subordinates, at one point interrupting the acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, as he tries to explain the scale of the invasion.

Smirnov was telling Putin that the Ukrainians were about 7 miles inside Russian territory when Putin interrupted him, saying he could get that information from the army and ordered him to focus on social and economic issues.

Putin is not used to having his authority and power challenged and the raid is the second major humiliation for the president in just over a year, following the Wagner mutiny in June last year.

Although the head of the private mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, failed and ended up dead after trying to challenge Putin, the episode caused a major fissure in the image the president has cultivated for decades.

What does this mean for Russia?

The magnitude of the crisis cannot be underestimated. For more than a decade, since Russia started the conflict in eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, Moscow’s war against Ukraine has barely touched the Russian people.

Widespread sanctions imposed by the West on Russia have made international travel difficult and foreign goods expensive or inaccessible, but the sense of security against foreign attacks has remained more or less intact.

That changed when Ukraine began using drones and missiles to regularly strike inside Russia earlier this year, especially after Kiev obtained permission from some of its allies to use its weapons for cross-border strikes. The ground incursion makes that even more evident.

Moscow has struggled to contain the attack. Russian authorities have imposed a broad anti-terrorism operation in three border regions — Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk — but have stopped short of declaring the incursion an act of war.

ISW said this was likely an attempt by the Kremlin to deliberately downplay the attack to avoid panic or domestic backlash over the fact that Russia was unable to defend its own borders.

What are Ukraine’s allies saying?

Putin lashed out at Ukraine’s allies on Monday, claiming that “the West is fighting against us with the hands of Ukrainians.”

Still, all signs point to the incursion coming as a surprise not only to Russia but also to some of Ukraine’s closest allies. The Biden administration said last week that it was not aware of Kiev’s plans in advance but reiterated its support for Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters on Monday (12), White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby said: “Make no mistake: This is Putin’s war on Russia. And if he doesn’t like it, if it’s making him a little uncomfortable, then there’s an easy solution: He can just walk out of Ukraine and call it a day.”

Likewise, the European Union, Germany, the United Kingdom and other Western countries have expressed support for Ukraine.

What happens next?

Analysts do not expect Ukraine to try to advance much further into Russian territory. The success of the incursion was largely down to surprise, with Moscow rushing to allocate resources to try to defend its borders.

Once Russian reinforcements are in place, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to hold on to the territory it has conquered.

Ukraine has spent the past few months trying to hold off Russian advances, first as it awaited delayed U.S. weapons deliveries and now as it waits for new recruits to be trained and arrive on the front lines.

The incursion may have given Ukraine a desperately needed boost.