Ukraine celebrates independence in 6 months of war, without Putin dominance

Ukraine celebrates its independence today, the same day it completes six months of struggle to preserve it. Despite the country being semi-destroyed, and thousands of dead, most of them civilians, there is reason to celebrate: Vladimir Putin has not achieved his goal of dominating the country, Ukrainian forces are with the initiative and the expectation of receiving more weapons.

The United States is to announce today a $3 billion package of military aid to Ukraine, the largest since the start of the conflict, according to Reuters. At the same time, there are fears that Russia will launch more intense bombings, as a reminder that it does not recognize Ukraine’s independence, and to avenge the attack on journalist Darya Dugina, daughter of ultranationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin, which took place on Saturday (20) in surroundings of Moscow.

The conflict is in its third phase. In the first, Russian forces tried to take at least two-thirds of the territory. Despite bombings that destroyed cities or parts of them, Russian soldiers were repulsed in central, western and northern Ukraine.

The Russian war effort began to focus on the east of the country, in an attempt to dominate the entire Donbas. The region is made up of two provinces. Luhansk was almost entirely taken over by the Russians. After occupying about half of Donetsk, the southern part of the region, the Russians were unable to advance any further.

While holding back the Russians in the east, the Ukrainians launched a counter-offensive in the south, in an attempt to prevent Russia’s planned annexation of Kherson province in early September. This forced the Russians to move more troops from the east to the south. It is estimated that there were around 12 Russian tactical battalion groups in the province. Now there are 27 of them. Each group contains up to a thousand soldiers.

At the same time, Ukraine has been deploying medium-range missiles and rockets against Russian targets up to 200 km away from the line of contact. Arms and ammunition depots and military bases have been destroyed in the Crimean Peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, and in other Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian forces.

There is, today, a balance of forces. The arrival of more weapons should continue to sustain the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ten thousand Ukrainian soldiers receive training in offensive tactics in the UK. Since independence in 1991, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been trained only for the defense of the country.

Ukrainians’ self-confidence has never been higher. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told CNN that “the worst scenario is behind us”.

President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that “the war started in Crimea and will end in Crimea” after an attack that destroyed eight planes at a Russian air base on the peninsula. It was the first time that he had set himself a goal not only to contain Russian expansion, but to recover the occupied territories in 2014.

However, the scenario is grim, from several angles. The Russians turned the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, into a military base. The apparent objective is to be able to divert the electricity generated by the plant to Russia, while blackmailing Ukraine and Europe with the threat of a major nuclear accident, which would obviously also affect Russia.

Furthermore, Ukraine is not in a position to defeat Russia militarily; only to raise the political and economic cost of the war to the point of forcing Putin to review his goals. And there is the fatigue of European allies with a protracted war, which generates energy and food inflation. Ukrainians are aware of the risk that Europeans will reduce support. “For me, it is the biggest threat,” said the defense minister.