When I was in US Department of State, colleagues were asking me what is likely to happen in this or that situation. Often, there was no way of knowing, and I reminded the interviewers that I was a Director of Policy Planning, not a forecaster. That said, forecasting can be a useful mental exercise for the coming year.
The US presidential election in November it is almost certain to be the most important event of 2024. Of course, the election on USA they are always important given their power and influence.
But what makes this election fundamentally different is that it is likely to be an electoral battle in which the differences between the major party candidates far outweigh their commonalities. Assuming that the President Joe Biden and the former President Donald Trump win the nominations of their parties, who wins will matter greatly, both to the United States and to the world.
Sure, there are some similarities between Biden and Trump. Neither believes in free trade, although Trump, unlike Biden, is clearly more fanatical about protectionism. Both favor a greater role for government in the economy. Both wanted to leave Afghanistan. They also agree on the need to take a hard line on China, especially when it comes to trade and investment in critical technologies.
But the differences are much greater. Biden is a career politician who believes in democracy, embraces its rules, and is prepared to work across party lines to forge compromises that benefit the country. Trump comes from outside the political space, is strongly partisan and rejects political norms (such as accepting electoral defeat), often putting himself ahead of the country's democracy.
Biden's foreign policy approach focuses on America's allies, which he sees as a great source of comparative advantage. Trump sees allies more as economic competitors and a drain on the US coffers.
While Biden characterized the current period in history as a struggle between democracy and autocracy and argued that America needs to support its democratic friends around the world, Trump does much better with authoritarian leaders and seems to envy their political control.
The list of issues on which the two differ significantly is long and includes climate change, immigration policy and abortion access, to name a few.
As of this writing, Trump has to be considered the favorite. His politics and personality are better suited to this populist era. Biden is also weighed down by the perception that he is too big, as well as by inflation and an unpopular influx of immigrants. The biggest question hanging over Trump is the extent to which his legal problems will translate into political problems.
But Americans won't just be voting for president this fall. Their vote will also decide whether Congress will be controlled by the same party. At the moment, the Senate is in the hands of the Democrats, while the Republican Party has a majority in the House of Representatives. The opposite is likely to happen after the elections.
If Trump wins, a Democratic-controlled House may be the most important limit on his power at the federal level. If Biden wins, a Republican-controlled Senate could make governing very tough.
Beyond the US, there will be dozens of other elections around the world in 2024. The first big one will be held in Taiwan in mid-January. Polls suggest a derby, with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate, William Lai, slightly ahead in a three-way race. But what matters most is that none of the candidates seem willing to do something as reckless as declare independence. However, if Lai becomes Taiwan's next president, China would likely respond by tightening the military, economic and political stranglehold on the island.
Two months later, presidential elections will also be held in Russia. Perhaps there is no easier prediction than that Vladimir Putin will win another term.
Another easy prediction is that the next president of Mexico will be a woman. Voters will go to the polls in June, and two leading candidates are female, left-leaning and running on political platforms that show a continuation of many of the policies of outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
The coming year will also be largely determined by war between Russia and Ukraine. In the third year of the war neither side seems able to impose their will on the battlefield, and neither side is willing to negotiate.
Ukraine is not prepared to accept anything less than the full restoration of its borders in 1991. It may, however, be forced to adopt a more defensive strategy as Western military support declines. Putin appears confident that time will weaken the resolve of Ukraine's supporters in the West.
In particular, Putin is waiting to see if Trump wins, so he expects, with good reason, that US military and economic aid to Ukraine will plummet, if not stop altogether.
Then there is the war between Israel and Hamas, now in its third month. At some point, the intensity of the war will fade somewhat and give way to an Israeli occupation of Gaza marked by periodic violence.
What will follow in Gaza and the occupied West Bank will be largely determined by the Israeli elections that are almost certain to be held in 2024. If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a like-minded government remain in power, the outlook for diplomacy will be bleak. Electing a more centrist government, however, would create diplomatic possibilities for the US and its Arab partners, although any diplomatic prospects could be jeopardized by a widening war in Lebanon or even Iran.
Regarding China-US relations, 2024 is unlikely to be a year of dramatic change. Chinese officials are mostly focused on the economy and are not looking for a confrontation with the US that could lead to more export controls and investment restrictions. Like Russia, China will have one eye on US policy, although many in China are less sure that a Trump victory would necessarily be in China's interest.
The biggest event to happen in the wake of the US election is likely to be the annual United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP29), which will take place in November in Azerbaijan. It is equally possible that the Synod will not produce results that will effectively stop the crisis.
TLast but not least is Argentina, where the new president promotes a platform of radical change. History suggests that when outsiders become insiders, reality often tempers what they do. Of course, Trump provides evidence that this is not always the case. Such wrinkles are one reason these predictions are so difficult.
- Richard Haas is Chairman Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior advisor at Centerview Partners. He previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-03) and was President George W. Bush's Special Envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. His article was published in Project Syndicate
Source: News Beast
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