The USD/JPY collapses as commercial optimism vanishes and the Boj is approaching

• The USD/JPY collapses during the North American trade, around the bottom of its daily range around 142.00.
• Persistent commercial uncertainty and multilateralism fading weigh on the feeling of the market; The BOJ meeting and US economic data are expected.
• Key levels of technical resistance are observed around 142.37, 142.94 and 143.18.

The USD/JPY pair faces a strong sales pressure, sliding towards the 142.00 area during the American hours on Monday. The caution of investors has resurfaced as the broader commercial optimism erodes, pushing demand towards Japanese yen, considered safe refuge. The tentative rebound of the feeling of risk of last week had driven the USD/JPY back around 144.00, but the beginning of this week sees a renewed Yen strength before key events both in the domestic sphere and in the US policy responsible keep rates at 0.50%. However, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh foods, shot 3.4% year -on -year in March, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures that could bring the BOJ closer to a tightening later this year.

Meanwhile, the US dollar fights in the midst of stagnant commercial negotiations. Despite the comments of the Treasury Secretary, Besent, about possible progress with Asian countries and hopes that China will break down, China firmly denied any ongoing conversation, emphasizing that mutual respect is essential. Retailers like Temu and Shein have already significantly increased prices for US consumers, reflecting the broader cost of persistent tariffs. Market participants are also watching a crowded economic calendar, starting with the first US GDP reading of the Q1 on Wednesday, followed by the non -agricultural payroll report on Friday. Both publications could strongly influence the trajectory of the Fed monetary policy, with expectations increasing rates cuts if economic deterioration persists in the second half of the year.

The movement of multilateralism to bilateral negotiations under the administration of Trump has introduced long -term structural uncertainties. While customers wonder if US commercial policies could reduce global tariffs, history suggests prolonged instability. WTO’s obligations hinder unilateral reductions in tariffs, and bilateral free trade agreements are long processes, which usually take years to conclude and implement. Adding to complexity, China announced Monday that it is not in active commercial discussions with the US, emphasizing that there are no winners in commercial wars. As a consequence, the collateral economic effects are intensifying, with consumer prices increasing drastically in sectors such as retail trade. In the American front, the DXY remains caught in a narrow range about 100.00, waiting for new directional signals of this week’s data publications. The resistance for the DXY is located at 100.22 and 101.90, while the downward support is at 97.73 and 96.94. Investors are cautious, weighing commercial holders and possible changes in the Fed policy.

The Boj meeting on Friday also has great importance. Although no increases in rates are expected immediately, stronger inflation readings than expected and broader global commercial interruptions can influence future orientation. The expectations of an increase in Boj rates have been postponed for later this year, with market participants observing the window from September to December. In general, Japanese yen could strengthen even more in the midst of a slower global growth and more accommodations of other important central banks, including Fed, BOE and ECB, all of which have indicated their willingness to loosen if economic risks intensify.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY

Technically, the USD/JPY is showing clear bearish signals while quoting around 142.00, lowering 1.14% in the day, and near the bottom of its daily range between 141.98 and 143.89. The relative force index (RSI) in 38.71 is neutral, while the MACD offers a modest purchase signal, creating a mixed technical background but in general cautious. Adding to the bearish case, the amazing oscillator in −3.98 and the product channel index (CCI 20) in −52.62 remain neutral, but negatively inclined. The sales pressure is further reinforced by mobile stockings: the 20 -day SMA is 144.40, the 100 -day SMA in 151.24, and the 200 -day SMA in 150.02 – all above the current price and pointing out an impulse down. The short -term dynamics offer little relief, with the EMA of 10 days in 142.94 and the 10 -day SMA in 142.37 presenting both immediate resistance barriers. The key levels of resistance to monitor are 142.37, followed by 142.94 and 143.18. A recovery above these obstacles would be necessary to weaken the current bearish impulse, but for now, the risks remain inclined downward.

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