- The DXY falls below the 104.00 zone while the actions descend and the yields of the bonds decrease.
- Optimistic employment data of ADP collide market anxiety for the imminent US tariffs.
- The key resistance is about 104.10, while the bearish pressure accumulates below 103.90.
The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar in front of a foreign exchange basket, is quoting below the 104.00 area during Wednesday’s session in the middle of a greater caution before the official announcement of White House tariffs. Despite ADP’s change data for March stronger than expected, the dollar is still under pressure. The technical signals are mixed, with some indicators suggesting an upward attempt, while the long -term mobile socks are inclined downward.
What moves the market today: US dollar caught in a limbo before the wave of tariffs
- The ADP employment change report showed that new jobs were added in the private sector in March, exceeding 105K forecasts.
- The chief economist of ADP said that reading reflects the resilience in hiring despite political uncertainty and the cautious feeling of the consumer.
- Market participants prepare for Trump’s announcement at 20:00 GMT about “Liberation Day” tariffs.
- Speculation revolves around possible 20% general tariffs without currently confirmed exemptions.
- A heavy tariff package could affect growth and feed inflation, risking staining concerns and changes in Fed policy.
- The markets could react more strongly on Thursday once the details and exemptions of tariffs are confirmed.
- Shares and crude oil are under pressure, while gold rises as operators seek security.
- The probabilities of fed rate cuts for May remain low, but volatility could increase depending on incoming data and commercial signals.
- The general feeling of the USD is weak, reflected in the fall in the demand for positions of bullish options.
- The direction of the DXY is increasingly linked to the fears of global growth and flows to shelter.
- ADP data often serve as a precursor to non -agricultural payroll (NFP) on Friday, which may have more weight for Fed observers.
- The bonds rose throughout the curve as the operators reposition before possible measures that impact growth.
- The dollar struggles to leave despite the support of better labor figures.
Technical analysis
The American dollar index (DXY) is under moderate down pressure while quoting near the 104.00 threshold. The convergence/divergence indicator of mobile socks (MACD) still emits a purchase signal, but the relative force index (RSI) remains neutral in 39.40, reflecting the lack of impulse.
Most mobile socks suggest a bearish bias: Simple mobile socks (SMA) of 20 days, 100 days and 200 days along with the 10 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) all point down. Williams’ perntual range and the amazing oscillator are both neutral.
The immediate resistance is located about 104,022 and 104,105, while the downward support is observed around 104,169, 104,128 and the key area of ​​103.90. A sustained fall below this level could unlock more losses towards the 103.00 zone.
FAQS tariffs
Although tariffs and taxes generate government income to finance public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are paid in advance in the entrance port, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and companies, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the use of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect national industries and address commercial imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially increase long -term prices and bring to a harmful commercial war by promoting reciprocal tariffs.
During the election campaign for the presidential elections of November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada represented 42% of the total US imports in this period, Mexico stood out as the main exporter with 466.6 billion dollars, according to the US Census Office, therefore, Trump wants to focus on these three nations by imposing tariffs. It also plans to use the income generated through tariffs to reduce personal income taxes.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
