- The US dollar is falling, with the DXY dollar index lowering around 0.50%.
- The markets are throwing the towel again after Trump and Besent said that their administration has not offered unilaterally to reduce US tariffs on China.
- The US dollar index remains limited below the round level of 100.00.
The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar (USD) compared to six main currencies, lies down and is 0.50% below at the beginning of the European negotiation session on Thursday. The immediate reaction occurs after the comments of the president of the United States (USA), Donald Trump, and the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent. Both said that no unilateral offer was made to China by the US to reduce tariffs, while Trump mentioned that reciprocal tariffs could be reviewed if negotiations do not go as the Trump administration wishes, Bloomberg reports.
In the economic calendar, a very intense negotiation day is coming. In addition to the weekly applications for unemployment, the Chicago Fed activity tracker and the manufacturing index of the Kansas Fed will be published. However, the main approach will probably be in the data for the request of lasting goods for March, with the markets waiting for orders to increase at a faster rate of 2%.
What moves the market today: Agenda loaded ahead
- At 12:30 GMT, the National Activity Index of the Chicago Fed for March will be published. There is no prognosis available, and the previous reading was 0.18.
- At the same time, US durable goods will be published for March and unemployment subsidy applications:
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- The general lasting goods are expected to jump to 2% from the previous 1%. Orders without cars and transport are expected to increase 0.2%, less than the price of 0.7% seen a month earlier.
- Initial applications for weekly unemployment subsidy are expected to increase to 221,000 from 215,000. Continuous requests are expected to remain stable at around 1.88 million.
- Around 14:00 GMT, existing housing sales data will be published for March. Sales are expected to soften 4.13 million compared to 4.26 million in February.
- Around 15:00 GMT, the manufacturing activity index of the Kansas Fed for April is expected. There is no prognosis available with the previous number in 1.
- The shares look gloomy this Thursday, with minor losses in Europe. The US futures face falls of more than 0.50%.
- The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the May meeting is 6.1% compared to a 93.9% probability that there are no changes. The June meeting still has about 58.7% probability of a rate cut.
- The 10 -year yields from the US are quoted around 4.35% seeking direction while the markets face some immediate reactions to Trump’s comments.
Technical analysis of the US dollar index: immediate reaction again and again
The American dollar index (DXY) is backing back after a two -day recovery. It seems that the DXY will begin to consolidate, quoting in a narrow range between 100.00 and 98.00. Operators are likely to be tired of these constant immediate reactions and choose to look for other places to invest their money, the gold being the preferred place.
Upwards, the first resistance of the DXY is located at 99.58, acting again as a false break that occurred on Wednesday and Thursday. If the US dollar can be positive again, look for 100.22 with a break above the round level of 100.00 as a bull sign of its return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90.
On the other hand, the support in 97.73 is very close and could be broken at any time. Below, a quite thin technical support is located at 96.94, before looking at the lowest levels of this new price range. These would be 95.25 and 94.56, which would mean new minimums not seen since 2022.
US dollar index: daily graphics
Commercial War between the US and China Faqs
In general terms, “Trade War” is a commercial war, an economic conflict between two or more countries due to the extreme protectionism of one of the parties. It implies the creation of commercial barriers, such as tariffs, which are in counterbarreras, increasing import costs and, therefore, the cost of life.
An economic conflict between the United States (USA) and China began in early 2018, when President Donald Trump established commercial barriers against China, claiming unfair commercial practices and theft of intellectual property by the Asian giant. China took retaliation measures, imposing tariffs on multiple American products, such as cars and soybeans. The tensions climbed until the two countries signed the Phase one trade agreement between the US and China in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes in China’s economic and commercial regime and intended to restore stability and confidence between the two nations. Coronavirus pandemia diverted the attention of the conflict. However, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept the tariffs and even added some additional encumbrances.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th US president has unleashed a new wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump promised to impose 60% tariff particularly in investment, and directly feeding the inflation of the consumer price index.
Source: Fx Street

I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.