The most likely scenario is a soft landing – Nordea

The evolution of the global economy and financial markets in 2023 was, fortunately, much better than feared. Now a new year awaits us, which already promises to be very challenging, according to Helge J. Pedersen, Chief Economist of the Group Nordea.

A challenging year awaits us

My best guess is that 2024 will be a very challenging year and that the events in the first six months will be decisive for Europe, which is on the brink of recession. Still, if interest rates have truly peaked and inflation remains subdued. I think a soft landing – without a drop in GDP and a sharp rise in unemployment – ​​is the most likely scenario.. If so, there is even a good chance that economies could return to a stronger growth pattern towards the end of the year.

At that point, stronger purchasing power could lead to a further rebound in consumer spending, just as planned large investments in the green and digital transition and increased defense spending could stimulate the broader economy.

Source: Fx Street

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