The Government aspires to raise more than 9,000 million of euros in the next two years through its rise of taxes and the anti-fraud plan. To do this, the Executive has communicated in the Budget Plan that this Thursday it has sent Brussels the application of the Tax on Certain Digital Services and the Tax on Financial Transactions, that is, the so-called Tasa Google Y Tasa Tobin, “which were recently approved by Parliament,” recalls the Government. Both figures will have an estimated impact of just over 1.8 billion in 2020 alone.
“Next year environmental taxation will also be promoted, in line with the recommendations of the European Commission”, and in this context, he explains, “the creation of the Tax on Single-use Plastic Containers, which has already passed the public information process “and whose estimated collection is 491 million. As a whole, adds the Executive, green taxation will contribute 1,311 million, and although no specific additional measures are specified in this point would fit a possible increase in the tax to the diesel that the Ministry of Finance already raised in previous and failed Budgets.
In addition, the Government “eliminates the application of the reduced VAT rate for soft drinks, juices and sodas with sugars or added sweeteners “, thus increasing” the rate from 10% to 21% “and contributing a total of 400 million between the next two years.
The Executive includes the also previously mentioned financial transaction tax and with which he hopes to raise 850 million. It will tax with 0.2% the operations of purchase of Spanish shares executed by operators of the financial sector, and whose market capitalization is greater than 1,000 million. “The taxpayers of the same will be the financial intermediaries that intervene in the operation”, defends the Government, but it seems unlikely that the entities will not transfer the tax to users.
Added to all this are “the measures included in the Draft Law on Prevention and Fight Against Tax Fraud”, which were announced last week by the Minister of Finance, Maria Jesus Montero, and which include reducing the maximum amount to 1,000 euros cash payment between professionals.
And the document also includes other fiscal actions that are not specified, but which will be the ones that are finally reached in the negotiation between PSOE and United We Can and that are estimated at an additional 2,000 million.  The talks between Montero and Nacho Alvarez, head of the education economy led by Pablo Iglesias, have focused in large part on the recommendations made by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) and including, for example, reformulating the taxation of pension plans or progressively modifying reduced and super-reduced VAT. Moreover, increases in the IRPF to high incomes are also not ruled out, and what is out of the question, as published by this newspaper, is an increase in value added tax on concerted education.
Historical total income level
With all this, the impact will be 6,847 million euros in 2021 and 2,323 million more in 2022, for a total of 9,170 million. And this will contribute significantly to the total increase in income expected by the Government, which “in 2021 they will be increased by 33,447 million euros compared to 2020reaching a record of about 494,000 million. “An increase in public revenue that is explained by the improvement in the economy and activity and, to a lesser extent, by the fiscal measures that will be applied from next year,” defends the Treasury.
The Plan also reports an increase in pensions although the figure is not specified. However, if the deflator of the Gross Domestic Product (START), the figure could be around 0.9%. Likewise, the European Union is informed “the full implementation of the Minimum Vital Income and the equalization of maternity and paternity leave to 16 weeks“.
Evolution of GDP and deficit
The Plan also communicates to Brussels what is the expected evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which according to the Government’s forecast will plummet by more than 11% this year. For next year, the Executive includes two scenarios: the inertial one and the one that includes the impact of the Recovery Plan that the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, presented last week.
In the first, the rebound would be 7.2%, a figure that is in line with what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated this week. However, the Executive hopes to reach 9.8% with the additional boost of the Plan. And that is the data that the AIReF and before which he presented serious doubts since its fulfillment. “This scenario is achievable if favorable circumstances converge”, although the Fiscal Authority noted that “the risk of less benign scenarios materializing around both factors that would lead to lower growth rates“.
The deficit, for its part, will go up to 11.3% of GDP this year, that is, more than 100,000 million, while next year the figure will be 7, 7%. The reduction, explains the Government itself, “is produced to a great extent by the recovery of income thanks to the better evolution of the economic cycle” and fiscal measures. Is that a reduction in spending is not contemplated to contain the historical deviation budget that the Spanish economy will suffer in 2021.
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