The duties of Donald Trump arrive: reasons and consequences of a measure that could hurt everyone

The duties arrived, and then? What do we do? American President Donald Trump announced, in his Liberation Daythe beginning of the Commercial War of the United States against the whole world – Even and above all against historical allies such as the European Union.

Trump will put a 10 percent duty on all imports in the United States, the percentage of the goods that come from EU to 20 percent and 34 percent for those from China (which are added to 20 percent already in force). The duties against Great Britain are 10 percent.

The duties are a tax on imports, therefore two categories of subjects affect: the exportersin our case the European companies that export to the United States, and consumers Americans who find themselves paying more both the imported goods (there is the tax in addition to the price) and the American goods not affected by the duties (local producers raise prices to take advantage of the lower competition).

Trump, in his speech to the White House, seems convinced that putting the duties will serve to report jobs in the United Statesbecause companies will return there to produce instead of exporting us only, will reduce inflationwill consolidate the role of the dollar and will bring a river of money to the state coffers (because the duties are, in fact, a tax).

No economic model, not even the most reckless, can guarantee these results, especially simultaneously.

What will happen at least in the short term will be that Prices in the United States will go upthe Central Bank will hold the interest rates at high instead of reducing them, consumption will go down, and even The exports of the United States will be penalized by the reactions of commercial partnerswhether they put return duties whether they use other tools.

There is the concrete risk of a recession in the United States that could infect the world economy. If Europe responds to taxing American imports, the damage will be even greater and the risk of recession as well. The problem is that if the duties affect intermediate assets, which are production factors, the price increase moves down the production chain.

And it is not always easy to understand where and when the duties will be felt. If we take the car sector, one of those that Trump wants to protect more, estimating the impacts of the duties is difficult: the United States they will put 25 percent duties on the import of vehicles and components, but the first car exporter from the United States It is the German company BMW which produces luxury SUVs and cars in South Carolina.

So the duties to protect American producers will affect the imports of Chinese or European components that serve a European manufacturer to produce cars in the United States, with American workers, to then sell in the European or perhaps Chinese market.

Globalization is a complicated and fragile thing, even if resilient, and Trump’s intervention risks compromising balances and production chains already put to the test by the geopolitical tensions of recent years.

The economist Larry Summersformer Treasury Secretary with Barack Obama, based on the reaction of the financial markets before and during Trump ads estimated that the damage for the American economy can reach 30,000 billion dollars, or $ 300,000 for each American family: “Never an hour of rhetoric of an American president had cost so much,” he wrote on X.

In 2024 Italy exported goods to the United States for a value of 70 billion dollars. A 10 percent duty, if companies are unable to transfer it to everything on indifferent consumers at the price (science fiction), can be translated into a decline in export of seven billion.

In short, there is no favorable treatment for Italy by Giorgia Meloni, who has done so much to maintain good relations with Trump: horizontal duties, on everything, affect enemies and friends in the same way. Indeed, with a declared fury on the allies that Trump considers the most dangerous in subtracting jobs and tax revenues from the United States.

The Verdi and left alliance of Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni has launched an app to discover the origin of the products at the supermarket – it’s called Trump Tax – In order to boycott those of American origin and encourage Italian or at least European ones.

In an era of economic follies, it is not surprising that an irrational move by the United States is answered with an irrational from the Italian side: if taken seriously and applied on the large scale, the approach of Fratoianni and Bonelli is equivalent to one “Non -tariff barrier” – a protectionist measure without duty – which reduces the demand for American products and increases that of Italian products. Thus, the price of the American ones will go further while that of Italian products will rise.

However, a kind of auto-Dazio that brings zero revenue to the coffers of the Italian state and which makes the shopping at the supermarket even more expensive for the Italian consumer. The average voter of AVS is unlikely to follow this example, especially if he recalls that recently Fratoianni has been at the center of a controversy for choosing a Tesla produced by Elon Musk as a family car.

In these weeks, someone has claimed that Trump’s duties are part of a negotiation, that Trump uses them to achieve other goals. But that’s not what he said: The United States Trumpians simply want to have more revenues from rates and minor imports from abroadeven if this breaks down the financial markets and brakes growth.

There is no strategic horizon, Protectiveness is good in itself. And this is a problem for us, because if there is nothing rational in the Trump approach to the economy and trade, how do you set in negotiations or a sensible reaction? Each meditated response will be exchanged for weakness, each instinctive reaction will make the problems worse.

The individual EU member countries, in our case, Italy cannot react in any way: Commercial policy is an exclusive competence of the European UnionTherefore it is the European Commission, together with the Council and the European Parliament, which can evaluate the use of some of the defensive tools on incorrect commercial practices designed for China but also applicable to the United States.

Responding with duties to duties, however, would also mean taxing European consumers and raising prices here too. More likely that targeted interventions are chosen on some symbolic but economically marginal sectors (the classic example are Harley Davidson motorcycles).

The real American fear – also of the Trump Administration – is that The union responds with an even more hostile attitude towards American digital platformsthe subject of multiple investigations by the European Commission as regards compliance with the complex EU digital regulation.

Here there is a further risk: politically motivated measures by the Commission would risk being dismantled by the European Court of Justice, to which the sanctioned companies almost always appeal, thus weakening in the long run the credibility of the EU as a regulator.

The only rational strategy without contraindications for the EU is to try to strengthen relationships with different and more reliable commercial partners in the United Stateswhich the European Commission has already started to do with the political agreement at the end of 2024 for the free trade treaty with the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). But also the attitude towards China is changing, very popular and hostile – also to satisfy American pressure – to a cautious opening of necessity.