- The AUD/USD quotes around the 0.6400 area, maintaining profits despite the stabilization of the US dollar.
- Concerns about a deceleration linked to China keep the Australian dollar under pressure, despite the optimistic Chinese GDP data of the first quarter.
- The resistance arises about 0.6420; Short -term mobile socks maintain a bullish alignment.
The Australian dollar (AUD) quotes with a modestly bullish tone on Tuesday, consolidating near the 0.6400 region during negotiation hours in North America. The torque has shown resilience despite a slight rebound in the US dollar index (DXY), which slightly bounces from a minimum of three years while the markets fit the benefits after the strong fall of the USD on Monday. The EUR/USD and the GBP/USD have also retreated from recent maximums, while the AUD/USD clings to a narrow daily range between 0.6377 and 0.6439.
Investors remain cautious since the commercial dispute between the US and China does not show signs of relief. The tensions intensified after the White House ordered investigation into possible tariffs on all mineral imports, which generated fears of interruptions in the supply chain. China responded with new export controls on rare earth materials. Despite a solid growth of 5.4% year -on -year in China in the first quarter and the strong industrial production and retail sales of March, the Australian dollar remains vulnerable due to its economic ties with Beijing. Meanwhile, the Bank of the Australian Reserve is expected to cut the rates in May, further limiting the bullish potential.
Daily summary of market movements: the USD bounces, commercial tensions and political nerves of the Fed ask for caution
- The president of the USA Trump renewed the pressure on the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Powell, accusing him of dragging the economy and asking for immediate rates cuts.
- Concerns about the independence of the Fed grow as the markets digest reports that Trump is exploring Powell’s dismissal before his mandate ends.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed the 2.8% global growth forecasts in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, citing US tariffs at historical levels and political uncertainty.
- The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell further to -13 in April, its weakest reading since November.
- Trump’s commercial policies have increased the risk of general inflation in a percentage point, according to IMF estimates.
- Investors are still cautious since the debate on the independence of the Fed and the uncertainty about tariffs threaten to undermine the credibility of the USD in the long term.
Technical analysis: the aud/USD maintains a bullish bias in the middle of a narrow range
The aud/USD torque maintains a constructive technical perspective despite a slight fall during the session. The price action is maintained within the daily range of 0.6377 to 0.6439, with short -term indicators that suggest an additional bullish potential if the support areas are maintained. The Relative Force Index (RSI) is 58,6700, indicating a neutral impulse, while the indicator of convergence/divergence of mobile socks (MACD) continues to emit a purchase signal, underlining a sustained bullish impulse.
Stochastic %K in 94,4800 and the Product Channel Index (CCI) in 99,8800 both remain in neutral areas, without still indicating exhaustion. It is important to note that all simple mobile socks (SMA) in the short term – including the 10 days in 0.6329, the 20 -day at 0.6266 and the 100 -day in 0.6286 – so as the 10 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) of 10 days in 0.6336, they are aligned to support the ascending movement. However, the 200 -day SMA at 0.6474 represents a medium -term key resistance and can limit any aggressive bullish extension.
The immediate support is seen at 0.6336, followed by 0.6332 and 0.6329. On the positive side, resistance is expected around 0.6413, then 0.6423, with a stronger pressure waiting for about 0.6474. While the Australian dollar remains above the level of 0.6330, the short -term feeling remains in favor of buyers.
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
