The Australian dollar maintains profits behind Judo Bank’s PMI data

• The Australian dollar recovers its losses registered in the previous session.
• Australia’s Judo Bank purchasing managers index indicated that private sector activity grew for the seventh consecutive month in April.
• President Trump assured investors that he has no intention of dismissing the president of the FED, Powell, helping to relieve concerns about the independence of the Central Bank.

The Australian dollar (AUD) regained ground on Wednesday, reversing its losses of the previous session. The Aud/USD torque stabilized after the publication of preliminary data from the Australian Judo Bank purchasing managers index (PMI), which showed that the activity of the private sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, driven by continuous growth in both manufacturing and services production.

The Judo Bank manufacturing PMI fell to a minimum of two months of 51.7 in April, compared to 52.1 in March. Although manufacturing production remained in expansion territory, the increase in new orders was modest. Meanwhile, the PMI of services fell slightly to 51.4 from 51.6 in the previous month, and the compound PMI was also reduced to 51.4 from 51.6.

The Aud/USD was pressed as the US dollar (USD) was strengthened, supported by comments from the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, who described the current tariff stagnation as “unsustainable”, suggesting a possible movement towards the unesae. The feeling of the market was even more driven by the US president, Donald Trump, who assured investors that he has no intention of dismissing the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, helping to relieve concerns about the independence of the Central Bank and the address of politics.

The Australian dollar advances while Trump says that tariffs on Chinese products would not be high

• President Trump also expressed optimism about ongoing commercial negotiations with China, stating that discussions were progressing well. Trump added that, although tariffs on Chinese products would not be as high as 145%, they would not be completely eliminated.
• The White House announced Tuesday that the Trump administration is moving forward in the negotiation of trade agreements aimed at relieving the wide tariffs introduced earlier this month. According to the US press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, 18 countries have already submitted commercial proposals to the US, and President Trump’s commercial team is scheduled to meet this week with representatives of 34 nations to explore possible agreements.
• The governor of the Board of the Federal Reserve, Adriana Kugler, declared on Tuesday that the unexpectedly high import tariffs of the US will probably push up prices. According to Reuters, Kugler emphasized that the Federal Reserve should maintain current short -term interest rates until inflationary pressures begin to decrease.
• The US consumer price index (ICC) was reduced to 2.4% year -on -year in March, compared to 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. The underlying ICC, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 2.8% annually, compared to the previous 3.1% and below the 3.0% estimate. In monthly terms, the CPI general fell 0.1%, while the underlying ICC rose 0.1%.
• The minutes of the Bank of the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) from March 31 to April 1 indicated continuous uncertainty about the time of the next adjustment of interest rates. Although the Board considered that the May meeting was an adequate time to review the monetary policy, it stressed that no decisions had been made in advance. The Board also pointed out both risks up and down that faces the economy of Australia and the trajectory of inflation.
• China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace observed in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding 5.1% market expectations. In quarterly terms, GDP increased 1.2% in the first quarter, after a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, being below the predicted gain of 1.4%.

The Australian dollar remains around 0.6400, the nine -day EMA acts as an immediate support

The Aud/USD torque is around 0.6390 on Wednesday, with the technical indicators of the daily graphic pointing to a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, while the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index remains firm above the 50 mark, both indicators pointing to a continuous bullish driving.

On the positive side, the immediate resistance is located in the recent maximum of four months of 0.6439, reached on April 22. A clear rupture above this level could open the door to a rally towards a maximum of five months of 0.6515.

On the negative side, the initial support is seen in the nine -day EMA about 0.6350, followed by a stronger support around the 50 -day EMA in 0.6295. A sustained movement below these levels could invalidate the current bullish perspective and expose the torque to deeper losses, potentially pointing to the minimum of March 2020 about 0.5914.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic