- The Australian dollar remains under pressure as the US dollar is strengthened, supported by signals of relaxation of tensions between the US and China.
- China’s movement to exempt certain US imports from its 125% tariffs has generated certain optimism for better commercial relations.
- The Federal Reserve is in its period of silence before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on May 7.
The Australian dollar (AUD) extends its losses per second consecutive session on Monday. The Aud/USD torque is under pressure as the US dollar (USD) is strengthened in the means of relaxation signals between the US and China.
China exempt certain US imports from its 125% tariffs on Friday, according to business sources. The movement has fed the hopes that the prolonged commercial war between the two largest economies in the world could be coming to an end.
However, Reuters cited a spokesman for the Chinese embassy on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiation with the US, stating: “China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs.” The spokesman urged Washington to “stop creating confusion.”
The AU also faces winds against as the expectations increase that the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) will deliver another rate of 25 basic points in May, as economic uncertainties are deepened and concerns on the global commercial environment increase.
The Australian dollar falls while the US dollar gains ground in the midst of decreased concerns between the US and China
- The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the USD compared to six main currencies, gains ground for the second consecutive day, quoting about 99.60 at the time of writing. The Federal Reserve (FED) is in mode of silence before its May 7 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
- The US Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, said Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is maintaining daily discussions with China on tariffs. Rollins emphasized that conversations are ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries are also “very close.”
- Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, commented that it is encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs. Hart said that, although it is reported that exclusion lists are being prepared for specific categories, official ads or policies have not yet been made. Both the China Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are currently collecting information on the matter.
- The US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday that initial unemployment benefits increased for the week ended on April 19. Initial unemployment subsidy applications increased to 222,000, slightly above expectations and above the revised figure of the previous week of 216,000. Meanwhile, continuous unemployment subsidy requests decreased by 37,000, falling to 1,841 million for the week ending on April 12.
- The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, recognized on Wednesday that current tariffs – 145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US assets – are unsustainable and should be reduced to begin a significant dialogue.
- The director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hasett, the main economic advisor of President Trump, declared that the US trade representative (USTR) has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers. Hasset also said that 18 written proposals from these ministers have been received. According to Hasset, China is still open to negotiations.
- Westpac predicted Thursday that the Bank of the Australian Reserve (RBA) would reduce interest rates at 25 basic points at its next May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data -based approach in the last quarters, which makes it difficult to predict its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.
- A Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that there are no “economic and commercial negotiations” with the US USA and emphasized that the US must “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” to pave the way for conversations.
- China’s Ministry of Finance declared on Friday that global economic growth is still slow, with tariffs and commercial wars that continue to undermine economic and financial stability. The Ministry urged all parties to improve the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, according to Reuters.
The Australian dollar remains below 0.6400; The resistance appears near the nine -day EMA
The aud/USD is quoting around 0.6390 on Monday, with the daily chart showing a bullish inclination. The pair continues to remain above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, while the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index is firmly maintained above level 50, suggesting a sustained bullish impulse.
On the positive side, the immediate resistance is observed in the recent maximum of four months of 0.6439, registered on April 22. A decisive rupture above this level could pave the way for a rebound towards a maximum of five months at 0.6515.
The initial support is aligned in the nine -day EMA of 0.6367, followed by a stronger support near the 50 -day EMA at 0.6305. A sustained fall below these levels would weaken the upward configuration and could lead to deeper losses, with the minimum of March 2020 about 0.5914 in sight.
AUD/USD: Daily graphic
Australian dollar Price today
The lower table shows the percentage of change of the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the main currencies today. Australian dollar was the weakest currency against the Swiss Franco.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.24% | 0.12% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.03% | -0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.18% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | -0.01% | 0.08% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.27% | -1.30% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | 0.02% | 0.04% | -0.09% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.23% | |
| Aud | -0.24% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.27% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.32% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 1.30% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.29% | -0.09% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.28% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quotation).
Faqs Australian dollar
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (Aud) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a country rich in resources, another key factor is the price of its greatest export, iron mineral. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and commercial balance. The feeling of the market, that is, if investors are committed to more risky assets (Risk-on) or seek safe shelters (Risk-Off), it is also a factor, being the positive risk-on for the AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) influences the Australian dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of the interest rates of the economy as a whole. The main objective of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2% -3% by adjusting the interest rates or the low. Relatively high interest rates compared to other large central banks support the AU, and the opposite for the relatively low. The RBA can also use relaxation and quantitative hardening to influence credit conditions, being the first refusal for the AU and the second positive for the AUD.
China is Australia’s largest commercial partner, so the health of the Chinese economy greatly influences the value of the Australian dollar (Aud). When the Chinese economy goes well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services in Australia, which increases the demand of the AU and makes its value upload. The opposite occurs when the Chinese economy does not grow as fast as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data usually have a direct impact on the Australian dollar.
Iron mineral is the largest export in Australia, with 118,000 million dollars a year according to data from 2021, China being its main destination. The price of iron ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian dollar. Usually, if the price of iron ore rises, the Aud also does, since the aggregate demand of the currency increases. The opposite occurs when the price of low iron ore. The highest prices of the iron mineral also tend to lead to a greater probability of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces highly requested exports, its currency will gain value exclusively for the excess demand created by foreign buyers who wish to acquire their exports to what you spend on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens the AU, with the opposite effect if the commercial balance is negative.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
