- The AUD/USD quotes around the 0.6400 area, bouncing strongly during the American session on Wednesday.
- Analysts point out that the AU is still vulnerable due to its exposure to China and a probable RBA rates cut in May.
- A key resistance is observed about 0.64100, with technical indicators mostly aligned up.
The Australian dollar (AUD) regained ground on Wednesday, ascending to the 0.6400 area during the American session, since the improvement in the feeling of risk and an American dollar (USD) in general weakest helped the aud/USD to shake the recent losses. The previous profits were driven by optimism around Chinese GDP, which grew by 5.4% year -on -year in the first quarter, exceeding forecasts. However, the rebound is still fragile in the midst of commercial tensions between the US and China and the role of Aud as proxy of Chinese demand.
The ING strategists continued to emphasize that the AU is still exposed as a barometer of the commercial dispute between the US and China, pointing out that, although the RBA is likely to loosen the policy next month, the main engine for the Aud remains the developments in commerce and raw materials. Internal level, the Australian economy faces pressure due to global decoupling, and the expected cut of RBA rates in May could limit the upward potential.
Daily summary of market movements: the price of gold shoots while the US dollar falls
- The gold reached a new record about $ 3,333 per ounce, supported by the demand for safe refuge and lower yields of the treasure bonds.
- Retail sales in the US increased a 1.4% monthly in March, reaching 734.9 billion dollars, slightly above market expectations; Interannual sales rose 4.6%.
- Trump ordered investigation into possible tariffs on all imports of critical minerals, citing national security concerns.
- China responded with new export licenses for rare earths, increasing economic pressure on key US sectors.
- The GDP of the first quarter in China surprised up with 5.4% year -on -year; March activity indicators also exceeded forecasts.
- Chinese officials indicated their willingness to resume commercial conversations if the US adopts a more respectful tone.
- The Australian dollar remains linked to the tensions between the US and China, limiting the upward potential despite a strong appetite for risk.
- RBA is expected to cut rates in May, but the status of Proxy of China makes the Aud vulnerable to winds against external.
- The DXY operates defensively near the 99.70 zone, without significantly benefiting from US optimistic data.
Technical Analysis: The AUD/USD maintains bullish bias
The Aud/USD shows a bullish technical perspective after rising to the region of 0.64. The indicator of convergence and divergence of mobile socks (MACD) is generating a new purchase signal, while the relative force index (RSI) is located about 59, in neutral-positive territory. Supporting the bullish inclination there are several key mobile socks: the EMA of 10 days at 0.6264, the 10 -day SMA at 0.6202, the 20 -day SMA at 0.6244 and the 100 -day SMA at 0.6289, all pointing up. Only the 200 -day SMA in the longer term, positioned at 0.6480, remains inclined down, suggesting that some resistance can persist above the curve.
Despite some contradictory signals of the raw material channel index and the stochastic oscillator, both showing neutral readings, the general structure favors an upward continuation if the impulse is maintained. The immediate support is about 0.6325 and 0.6288, while the resistance can be seen at 0.6412, followed by 0.6479.
FAQS tariffs
Although tariffs and taxes generate government income to finance public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are paid in advance in the entrance port, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and companies, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the use of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect national industries and address commercial imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially increase long -term prices and bring to a harmful commercial war by promoting reciprocal tariffs.
During the election campaign for the presidential elections of November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada represented 42% of the total US imports in this period, Mexico stood out as the main exporter with 466.6 billion dollars, according to the US Census Office, therefore, Trump wants to focus on these three nations by imposing tariffs. It also plans to use the income generated through tariffs to reduce personal income taxes.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
