The Australian dollar is strengthened as Trump confirms conversations with China

• The Australian dollar can be seen while the US dollar weakens in the midst of growing economic concerns.
• Trump adopted an optimistic tone, suggesting that a commercial agreement with China could end in three to four weeks.
• The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, warned that a weak economy combined with sustained inflation could increase the risk of stagflation.

The Australian dollar (AUD) extends its rally that began on April 9, with the Aud/USD torque gaining ground as the US dollar (USD) weakens in the midst of growing concerns about the economic impact of tariffs in the United States (USA). Market participants are closely monitoring developments in the US trade negotiations, although commercial activity is expected to be moderate due to the Good Friday holiday.

On Thursday afternoon, US President Donald Trump said that China had made multiple approaches and added: “I don’t want to increase tariffs on China. If Chinese tariffs increase, people will not buy.” Trump expressed optimism that a commercial agreement with China could be reached in three to four weeks.

The Aud received an impulse after President Trump announced exemptions for key technological products of the new “reciprocal” tariffs proposed. These exemptions, which cover articles such as smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells and flat screens, favor goods produced predominantly in China, the largest commercial partner in Australia and a significant consumer of its exports of raw materials.

The minutes of the meeting from March 31 to April 1 of the Bank of the Reserve of Australia (RBA) indicated continuous uncertainty about the time of the next adjustment of interest rates. Although the Board considered that the May meeting was an adequate point to review monetary policy, it emphasized that no decisions had been made in advance. The Board also pointed out both risks up and down that faces the economy of Australia and the trajectory of inflation.

The Australian dollar can be seen while the US dollar fights in the midst of growing economic concerns

• The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the USD in front of a basket of six main currencies, is negotiating down around 99.30 at the time of writing. However, the US dollar found some support after the aggressive comments of the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who warned that a slow economy combined with persistent inflation could challenge the objectives of the Fed and increase the risk of stagflation.
• According to the CME Fedwatch tool, monetary market operators are currently valuing around 86 basic points of FED fees cuts by the end of 2025, with the first early reduction in July.
• In the labor front, the US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the initial unemployment requests fell to 215,000 for the week that ended on April 12, below the expectations and decreasing from the revised figure of the previous week of 224,000 (originally 223,000). However, continuous unemployment applications increased by 41,000 to 1,885 million for the week ending on April 5.
• The US consumer price index (ICC) was moderated to 2.4% year -on -year in March, lowering 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. The underlying ICC, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to the previous 3.1% and below the 3.0% estimate. In monthly terms, the CPI general fell 0.1%, while the underlying ICC rose 0.1%.
• Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in March, slightly below the 4.2% market forecast. Meanwhile, the change in employment was 32.2K, in front of the 40K consensus forecast.
• The six -month annualized growth rate of the Australian Westpac advance index, which predicts the economic impulse in relation to the trend during the next three to nine months, was moderated to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.
• The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared Thursday that if the United States continues to participate in tariff -related provocations, China will simply ignore them.
• China’s economy grew at an annual 5.4% rate in the first quarter of 2025, matching the rhythm seen in the fourth quarter of 2024 and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. In quarterly terms, GDP increased 1.2% in the first quarter, after a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, being below the predicted gain of 1.4%.
• Meanwhile, China’s retail sales increased 5.9% year -on -year, exceeding 4.2% expectations and rising from February 4%. Industrial production also exceeded expectations, increasing 7.7% compared to the 5.6% and 5.9% prognosis.

The Australian dollar could prove the psychological level of 0.6400 about four months maximum

The Aud/USD torque is about 0.6390 on Friday, with the indicators of the daily graphic pointing to a bullish bias. The pair remains above the nine -day exponential (EMA) mobile average, while the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index is maintained above the 50th brand of 50, both supporting a continuous bullish driving.

Upwards, the aud/USD torque could find key resistance at the psychological level of 0.6400, followed by the maximum of four months of 0.6408, last reached on February 21.

Down, the initial support is in the nine -day EMA of 0.6311, with additional support in the 50 -day EMA about 0.6283. A rupture below these levels could weaken the short -term bullish perspective and open the door to a deeper fall towards the 0.5914 area, its lowest level since March 2020.

AUD/USD: Daily graphic