Talks between Russia and Ukraine are not enough to trigger a relief movement

This is what you need to know to trade today Tuesday 1 of March:

The positive change seen in risk sentiment in the second half on Monday was short-lived, with Russia increasing its military presence in Ukraine. Investors remain cautious early Tuesday and the US dollar holds its ground against its main rivals. Later in the day, inflation data from Germany and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February could provide further momentum. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is also scheduled to deliver a speech at 13:00 GMT. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve is expected to release opening remarks from FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony on Wednesday.

After a long meeting on Monday, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations have agreed to meet again for a second round of “peace talks”, reviving hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. However, NBC News has reported that US intelligence agencies have determined that Russian President Putin might “double down on violence” as he was frustrated with his military struggles in Ukraine. Other news about the war showed that a huge military convoy was moving towards Kiev and Russia was planning to choke off supply routes to the capital.

The futures of US stock indices are unchanged at the start of the European session on Tuesday with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rising more than 1% to 1.86%. The US dollar DXY index posts small daily gains but remains below 97.00.

Earlier in the day, data from China have shown that business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February after contracting in January, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI improving to 50.4 from 49.1. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 0.1% as expected and the central bank reiterated that the monetary policy rate will not be increased until actual inflation is sustainable within the 2%-3% target range. The AUD/USD rises modestly on the day at 0.7270.

The EUR/USD scored a decisive bounce in the American session on Monday and ended up closing the day in positive territory at 1.1220. The pair is trading in a relatively tight range near 1.1200 on Tuesday.

The GBP/USD remains relatively calm above 1.3400 at the start of the European session on Tuesday. The Bank of England is to release data on net lending to individuals for January later in the day, which will likely be ignored by market participants.

The USD/JPY turned down late on Monday and closed the first day of the week in the negative. The pair is now trading sideways around 115.00.

The gold It came under heavy downward pressure in the second half on Monday as risk flows took control of the markets. XAU/USD is consolidating Monday’s losses, holding afloat above 1,900.

The Bitcoin moved higher and gained more than 14% on Monday before stabilizing above 43,000 early Tuesday. The ethereum rose 11% on Monday and approached the critical level of 3,000.

Source: Fx Street

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