The kidnapping claimed by Boko Haram of 333 high school students from a school in Katsina State where President Buhari is from has rekindled the still open wound of the kidnapping of high school girls in Shibok, northeastern Nigeria. This raises questions about the socio-political realities observed on the ground and about the government’s capacity to curb the terrorist phenomenon that is Boko Haram. Journalist and observer informed of the upheavals taking place in the Sahel, Seidik Abba answered questions from Africa Point.
What is your analysis of the kidnapping that has just taken place in Katsina State?
Seidik Abba: I think the movement wanted to make a spectacular hit. Despite the dissensions that we know, despite the fratricidal wars and clashes of recent times, the movement wants to show that all this has not prevented its ability to mount an operation of such magnitude with the logistics that this calls for . Because, in order to be able to abduct more than 330 people at a time, you have to have logistics. You have to have human intelligence. Boko Haram wants to demonstrate that it is not weakened, that it is still intact and that it can still strike where it wants.
However, for my part, I do not think that it is a desire for territorial expansion. It is rather an operation of opportunity. The opportunity to carry out this operation has arisen in this part of the country, but there is no will of Boko Haram to establish itself in Katsina State. Currently the movement seeks rather to consolidate its traditional strongholds which are the Sambisa forest, the Lake Chad basin, etc. Boko Haram has of course benefited from local complicity in setting up its operation. He sent a commando to carry it out, but the idea is not to settle there.
What does this say about the social and security situation in Nigeria?
All of this reflects a deterioration in the security situation. This adds to the distress of the populations who no longer know which way to turn today. They had based much hope on the arrival of Buhari elected in 2015 on the basis of the promise to eliminate Boko Haram. And today, six years after the first term, halfway through the second term, there is none of that. The populations today are totally helpless. They rely on fate or prayer with the feeling that it will not be able to solve the problem. The situation is all the more difficult as There is a desire to outbid the part of several factions of Boko Haram. Each faction wants to give proof of its ability to operate and show that the other faction is failing. Other actions have been claimed by the Islamic State in West Africa (Iswap). There, Boko Haram acted to prove that it is powerful and that the enemy is him.
The president is from Katsina. Did Boko Haram want a direct balance of power with the president?
Yes, there is in a way this desire to challenge President Buhari who is from the North. Many thought that his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, could not do anything because he was from the South. But there, they find that even with a Northerner, it’s the same thing. Let’s say they said to themselves that they had finally brought a brother to the head of state. If I had to judge the results, I would say that Buhari did not make this issue his priority. Today, the results are far from being there. We have people in the North who are angry.
What is the government’s room for maneuver?
First, there is a problem of coordination between the central state and the federal states. Those who decide at the state or parliamentary level have nothing to do with the governor who is in another paradigm. On the one hand, we want the populations to return to the areas they have abandoned and that we want to secure, while the federal state has instead encouraged the populations to leave by saying that if they come together in more specific places it will be difficult to ensure their safety. It does not work.
Nigeria began, with the arrival of Buhari and the change in the United States with the election of Donald Trump, to buy fighter jets that Barack Obama had refused to sell to him. And despite the increase in military resources, the result on the ground has not changed. Which calls for a paradigm shift. We must associate development with good governance because we know that some join Boko Haram, because of injustice, because of abuses and because of the absence of the State. Everything military and security has not produced results. And even if we change our military strategy, that will not be enough to bring peace to the Lake Chad basin.
Boko Haram also claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack in Bosso, Niger this time, is there coordination to attack in all directions?
No, there is no coordination per se. There is an escalation between the different factions. There is a will for everyone to mark their territory, to show that it is they who control this part. Shekau’s faction attacked far away from the Sambisa Forest area. The others attacked near the Lake Chad basin. This demonstrates the need for a concerted, global, sub-regional response. Today, despite the progress observed, each country has its policy to fight Boko Haram. There needs to be better coordination and integration of the response between states.
By targeting a school, does Boko Haram hope to reaffirm a certain ideology, to attack education which is its real hobbyhorse?
There are several dimensions. There is of course the fact that for Boko Haram, Western education is always a sin. There is also this desire for the movement to oppose groups that take their children to Western schools, as it has done since its inception. Then there is the question of opportunity because, when you have a boarding school close at hand, you are lucky to be able to abduct several children. Hundreds of children, over 300 children at a time. If we attack houses, we won’t be able to have time to reunite so many children. There is this desire to attack schools, attack boarding schools and show that when you have the will to do, you can do it.
There remains a major piece of information that should challenge us. This time they kidnapped boys. We know that the movement has been greatly weakened in recent times. There is clearly a will here to use them to carry out kamikaze operations or to turn them into combatants.
How could we dilute Boko Haram in the Muslim societies of northern Nigeria?
No, no and no ! The problem with Boko Haram is that it does not have the sympathy of Muslims. The group has killed more Muslims than people of other religions, 90% of Boko Haram victims are Muslims. It means that this is not a group that primarily claims Islam. It is even, I would say, villainy. Their actions are contrary to Islam. As part of our investigation Journey to the heart of Boko Haram. Jihad Survey in Sub-Saharan Africa, Mahamadou Lawaly Dan Dano and I have collected testimonies from people who have gone as close as possible to the movement and who have reported practices totally contrary to the Muslim religion. Religious practice there is superficial. Many were used at the start. They were abused because they thought it all had to do with Islam. However, it is not the case. It is all well known now. The religious cause does not can no longer be evoked. This is why it is difficult to speak of integration or rapprochement.

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