Powell speech: Nobody knows if we will have a recession

FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell comments on the political outlook following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the official interest rate by 75 basis points to the 3-3.25% range after the September monetary policy meeting.

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“It’s plausible that job offers will go down without unemployment going up as much.”

“Long-term inflation expectations this cycle have remained fairly well anchored.”

“That will also make it easier for inflation to come down.”

“Part of the inflation is due to supply shocks.”

“Commodity prices seem to have peaked.”

“If supply shocks also ease, they could ease pressures on inflation as well.”

“Restoring price stability and achieving a soft landing is a challenge.”

“No one knows if we will have a recession, or if so, how deep it will be.”

“The chances of a soft landing are also likely to diminish to the extent that policy has to be more restrictive or stays so for longer.”

“But not lowering inflation would be a much bigger pain.”

“We believe that the political stance needs to be raised to a restrictive level.”

“By restrictive, I mean putting significant downward pressure on inflation.”

“There needs to be significant downward pressure on inflation.”

Source: Fx Street

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