The days go by and look the same in Brussels, where post-Brexit negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union continued on Sunday, December 13, the date set by the two parties to decide their fate: either a failure with serious consequences , or a further extension, just eighteen days from the final termination.
No scenario can be ruled out, including the unexpected announcement of a compromise, as these tense talks, peppered with bluffs and deadlines not met, have been rich in twists since their launch in March. But the trend appeared negative on Saturday evening, with a British government source saying that “as it stands, the EU’s offer [restait] unacceptable ”.
We are already in additional time
British negotiator David Frost arrived at the premises of the European Commission in Brussels on Sunday around 9 a.m. (French time) to resume talks, Agence France-Presse noted. According to a European source, these ended late at night from Saturday to Sunday.
Whether or not to continue the talks is to be decided by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after a telephone interview on Sunday. If London and Brussels decided to extend their exchanges again, it could only be “a few days at most”, warned the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune. “We are already in additional time”, he underlined in TheSunday newspaper.
Royal Navy ready to protect fishing grounds
Despite ever more intensive exchanges, the differences seem irreconcilable between the British who want to regain total commercial freedom and Europeans anxious to protect their huge single market. “Any agreement must be fair and respect the fundamental position that the United Kingdom will be a sovereign nation in three weeks,” the British government source insisted on Saturday evening.
Sign of renewed tension, the British Ministry of Defense announced, on the eve of this new deadline, that Royal Navy ships were standing by to protect national fishing grounds where clashes could occur in the event of absence of agreement.
The defense of the single market, a red line for the EU
The UK, which officially left the European Union on January 31, will abandon the single market and customs union for good on December 31. Without a trade agreement, its trade with the EU will be carried out under the sole rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), synonymous with customs duties or quotas, at the risk of a new shock for economies already weakened by the coronavirus.
The discussions stumble on three subjects: the access of European fishermen to British waters, the way to settle disputes in the future agreement, and above all the conditions that Europeans demand of the British to avoid any unfair competition. The EU is ready to offer London duty-free and quota-free access to its huge market. But in this case it intends to ensure that the United Kingdom will not engage in dumping by deviating from European environmental, social, fiscal or State aid standards.
If so, it wants to be able to take swift countermeasures, such as tariffs, without waiting for the dispute to be resolved through traditional arbitration, in order to protect its businesses. London strongly opposes it. “The defense of the single market is a red line for the EU,” hammered a European source. “What we have proposed to the UK respects British sovereignty. This can be the basis of an agreement. ”
A “very, very probable” failure
Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson have been trying for several days to unblock the discussions at the political level. During a dinner in Brussels on Wednesday evening, they could only see again “very distant” positions and had promised to make a decision on Sunday. They have since competed in pessimism, Boris Johnson estimating a failure “very, very likely”, when the head of the European executive considered “weak” the hopes of agreement.
Pragmatic, the Commission on Thursday published emergency measures to maintain, in the event of a “no deal”, air and road transport between the United Kingdom and the EU for six months, as well as reciprocal access to fishing waters for one year.
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