After the reports of the death of the Pope Francis, the YES Stans increased sharply in the forecast market Polymarket “Will there be a new Pope in 2025?” (New Pope in 2025?). In the morning, the probability of pope change was estimated at 35% (35 cents per YES-TOKEN), but after the news the rate increased multiple, to $ 1 (100%). The market volume on the market exceeded $ 2 million. Writes about this RBC Crypto.
Polymarket is the largest decentralized forecast market. Users make bets on the outcome of events by buying “yes” or “no” tokens for cryptocurrencies. The price of token reflects the probability of an event: if “yes” costs $ 0.20, then the chance is estimated at 20%. The victorious tokens bring $ 1, the losers are reset.
According to the Polymarket rules, the bets in the pool will close in favor of “yes” if the new pontiff is officially announced until the end of 2025. The source is the official statement of the Vatican or consensus of authoritative media.
Francis was hospitalized on February 14 with an infection of the respiratory tract, later he was confirmed by bilateral pneumonia. A pool of bets on the choice of a new dad opened on Polymarket in six days, February 20.
On February 25, two more pools appeared: one with a list of candidates, the other with the names of the continents, from where the new head of the Catholic Church will be chosen.
In the pool “Who will be the next Pope?” It is explained that after the death of Francis, the process of choosing his successor on the papal conclave began. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is currently a favorite, among other strong candidates – the Secretary of State of the Vatican Cardinal Pietro Passoli, as well as the cardinals Peter Erde and Peter Terkson. It is expected that the conclave, which involves the daily rounds of voting until the majority of two -thirds of the vote is reached, will last from 15 to 20 days.
In the pool “From which continent will the next pope be?” There is no obvious leader yet. But the cardinals from the global south, from Africa and Asia, attract attention. Luis Antonio Tagle with the Philippines is a serious contender for becoming the first Pope from Asia. However, the participants in the pool believe that with a probability of 56%, a new pontiff will be from Europe, according to 16:30 Moscow time. The chances of the victory of Asia are estimated at 31%.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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