The recent (19.8.2022) attack by al-Shabaab on a central hotel in the Somali capital Mogadishu is a continuation of last March’s attacks by the same organization with shootings at the Aden Ade International Airport in Mogadishu, with the execution of MP Amina Mohammed Abdi by a suicide bomber in Bellenduein, and the execution of veteran politician Hassan Dohul in the same city.
writes Evangelos Venetis*
These attacks are a reminder to the West that political Islam is now strong in the Horn of East Africa. At the same time, it highlighted in the most bloody way the behind-the-scenes war that has been raging for the last three decades between the pro-Western political elite of Somalia and the Islamists of Al-Shabaab and other grassroots organizations.
Indicative of the intense political background to the softening of political Islam in a context of supposed reconciliation in the African country is the appointment of the former deputy leader of al-Shabaab, Mukhtar Robo, as Minister of Religious Affairs of the Somali government. Mukhtar’s 180-degree turnaround is a result of his arrest in 2017. The Somali government approached Mukhtar and suggested that he become what he had been fighting until then: a government official in the ranks of the opposition. And Mukhtar accepted.
It is unknown whether Mukhtar today has a double or triple agenda. It should be considered certain that both in the ranks of Al-Shabaab and other Islamist organizations, tectonic changes are taking place regarding the strategy they should follow in Somalia and more broadly in the region of the Straits of Aden and the Eastern Sahara, areas where they operate both western countries (Israel, USA, Britain, France) and their regional allies (Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula) as well as revisionist (Turkey, China and Russia).
The political message of Mukhtar’s ministerial appointment by his erstwhile rivals is clear to al-Shabaab: compromise or defeat. At the same time, it seeks to raise doubts in the ranks of Al-Shabaab’s leadership and fighters about their dedication to the common cause of political Islam. However, it is estimated that this communication move by the Somali government, which is a reflection of the behind-the-scenes war of neutralizing Al-Shabaab at the intelligence level, is far from achieving its purpose, as Al-Shabaab has a strong organizational base, popular support and multiple networks of ideological and material support from abroad. As al-Shabaab is a guerrilla organization, it will continue to operate with asymmetric strikes, as shown by recent attacks, calling into question the geopolitical security of the Straits of Aden.
*Dr. Evangelos Venetis is an expert on Islam and the Middle East
Source: News Beast

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