Parliamentary elections in France: Marginal victory for Macron in the first round

Jean-Luc Melanson may have seemed to take first place in the first round of parliamentary elections in Francebut Emanuel Macron managed to get a marginal victory with a demarcation in the final straight.

Specifically, Macron’s “Together” faction garnered 25.75% of the vote against 25.66% of Melanson’s “People’s Union”, who, however, maintained a narrow lead (25.6% against 25.2% of the French president). The first round was marred by record abstention in the post-war history of the country with 52.8%.

Macron is first in the seats

Although Macron’s coalition is expected to remain the leading force in France, the first round of elections was marked by the strong rise of the united left, but also of the far right.

One has to wait for the second round next Sunday to see if the Emanuel Macronwho was re-elected on April 24 for a second five-year term, will or will not be able to maintain an absolute majority and, moreover, his ability to freely pursue his policy of controversial reforms.

However, Melanson’s rise of coalition unlikely to translate into simple majority in 577-seat National Assemblyas moderate voters are expected to support the Macron faction next Sunday. Macron’s party and its allies are expected to secure 265 to 304 seats and the leadaccording to the average estimates of four polling institutes after the first round of elections, while 289 seats are required for the absolute majority.

However, the second strongest faction in the French National Assembly will be, as Nupes shows, the alliance of the left-wing parties under Melanson with 163 to 207 seats, the far-right National Alarm of Marin Le Pen is expected to secure 17 to 36 seats, while the right-wing and their allies at least 33.

“A very serious warning was sent to Macron. The vast majority is far from certain “says political scientist Brice Tentier.

The lessons of the first round

In addition to warning President Macron, the main lessons learned from the election are the spectacular rise of a left-wing coalition around Jean-Luc Melanson, the strong rise of Marin Le Pen’s far-right party and the collapse of the traditional right, as well as the record of abstentionalways according to the French Agency.

The “Together” coalition of the French president and his central allies reportedly won 275 to 310 seats, according to an Ifop-Fiducial projection, and 255 to 295 seats, according to Ipsos. The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 seats (out of a total of 577).

In the polls, Jean-Luc Melanson’s radical left-wing “Nupes” coalition garnered between 25 and 26.2% of the vote, compared to 25 to 25.8% for the “Together” coalition, with both factions fighting a fierce battle. with chest.

However, more than one in two voters did not go to the polls on Sundaya new record that highlights the French indifference to a vote overshadowed by the presidential election.

Estimates for the second round

Now, the focus is on the second round, where analysts and pollsters estimate how The “Together” faction, which is next to President Emanuel Macron, will win the most seats.

They also agree that Left-wing coalition leader Melanson unlikely to achieve goal of being “elected” prime ministeras it will not secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly that will emerge in the second round of elections to be held next Sunday, as well as that Re-elected President Emmanuel Macron will hardly achieve his own goal, which was to have an absolute majority in the French National Assembly.

And The two sides hope, however, that next Sunday the abstention will be shorterexpecting that this will be to their advantage.

One of the questions raised in view of the second round of parliamentary elections is what position will be taken by the parties in the regions which in the second round will not have their own candidate.

Source: News Beast

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