Poland’s nationalists appeared to have lost their parliamentary majority on Monday in the country’s most important election in decades, potentially paving the way for opposition parties to take power in what would be a major political upheaval.
Poland has repeatedly clashed with the European Union over issues including the rule of law, press freedom, immigration and LGBT rights since the Law and Justice (PiS) party came to power in 2015, but opposition parties have promised repair ties with Brussels and scrap reforms that critics say undermine democratic standards.
An Ipsos exit poll published in the early hours of Monday showed PiS with 36.6% of the vote, which would mean 198 parliamentarians in the lower house of Parliament, with 460 seats.
The opposition parties, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk’s liberal Civic Coalition (KO) group, were projected to win a combined 248 seats, with the KO winning 31% of the vote.
Official results after counting 50% of electoral districts put PiS at 38.3%, while KO at 27.8%, followed by its ally, the center-right Terceira Via party, at 14.4%. . Generally, more conservative rural areas and small towns report their results more quickly than large cities, where liberal parties are stronger.
The opposition’s victory in parliament in an election considered by analysts to be the most important election for Europe in years could redefine the relationship between Brussels and the bloc’s largest member in Central and Eastern Europe.
“Removing the nationalists will help restore damaged relations with the EU,” said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG bank.
Tusk said he would try to unlock around 110 billion euros of EU funds earmarked for Poland, which were frozen due to concerns about the rule of law in the country.
Even if the official results confirm the exit poll, Tusk and his Third Way and New Left party allies may have to wait weeks or even months before they have the chance to form a government.
President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, said he would give the winning party the first chance. However, as the far-right Confederation party won just 6.4% of the vote, below expectations, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki or any other PiS politician will have difficulty forming a new government.
Poland’s electoral commission estimated that turnout on Sunday was 72% based on partial results, the highest since the fall of communism in 1989, underscoring the high stakes of this election.
In an aggressive campaign, in which it sought to paint Tusk as a puppet of Germany, PiS presented the election as a choice between uncontrolled illegal immigration, under the command of leaders committed to foreign interests, and a government that would protect borders, security and the traditions of Poland.
However, PiS has faced growing discontent over what critics said was a democratic backsliding and erosion of women’s rights after the government imposed a near-total ban on abortion in 2021.
Source: CNN Brasil
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