The financial market forecast for inflation in 2022 jumped from 5.65% to 6.45%, up 0.8 percentage point. This is the ninth consecutive weekly rise in the median of forecasts for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index).
The numbers are from the Focus Bulletin of the Central Bank (BC) released this Monday (14). The document gathers the estimates of more than 100 financial market institutions for the main economic indicators.
If the forecast value for the IPCA is confirmed, this will be the second year of breaking the inflation target, which in 2022 should not exceed 5%. The center of the target is 3.5%, however, the margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down allows the index to vary between 2% and 5%.
For 2023, economists forecast a rise in the IPCA of 3.70%, compared to 2.51% in the previous week. The center of the official inflation target for 2023 is 3.25%, also with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 pp.
Analysts also raised forecasts for the basic interest rate, which should reach 12.75% per year until the end of 2022. The basic interest rate, the Selic, is the Central Bank’s main tool to control inflationary pressure. .
For 2023, the inflationary expectation in rose from 3.51% to 3.70%. The value is also above the target center of 3%, but still within the upper limit of 4.5%.
The estimate of economic growth for 2022 advanced to 0.49%, up from 0.42% a week ago. For 2023, the market has lowered its growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 1.50% to 1.43%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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