JPY: Space for a greater strengthening of the JPY even if the box expresses more caution – mufg

The tentative improvement in the feeling of risk of global investors contributed to the low yen performance during the past week, along with the other traditional safe refuge currency, the Swiss Franco. This has turned out that the USD/JPY rises again to the level of 144.00 after briefly falling below the level of 140.00 at the beginning of last week. The weakest yen and the improvement of the feeling of risk have helped to completely reverse the losses of the ‘Liberation Day’ (~ 15%) for the Topix Japanese actions index during the night, says the FX analyst of MUFG, Lee Hardman.

The yen weakens in the midst of improving the feeling of risk

“The main event for the Yen this week will be the last BOJ’s policy meeting. It will be the first policy update from the announcement of tariffs of the ‘Liberation Day’ of President Trump. The BOJ will have to take into account the negative impact of commercial interruption when they establish monetary policy in the next week. At the previous policy meeting in March, the BOJ had already expressed caution when the governor declared a trial. On whether they are approaching their objective given the high uncertainty about trade and other foreign policies, while indicating that things were clarified in early April. “

“The surprising significant rise in the Tokyo CPI report for April was favorable for a greater normalization of policy in Japan. However, commercial interruption will discourage the BOJ from increasing rates even more in the short term. A rapid commercial agreement between the US and Japan to reverse tariff increases could give the box Japanese rates has already delayed expectations on the time of the next increase in the June-July Boj to September-December. “

“In general, the developments do not change our opinion that the JPY will probably be further strengthened together with global deceleration growth, which will encourage other important central banks, including the Fed, to make clippings of deeper rates that continue to reduce the differences in Japan of a weakening of economic growth in the coming months. “

Source: Fx Street

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