Ivory Coast: the electoral crisis in six points

– Same actors, different scenario

The actors are the same: President Alassane Ouattara, former President Henri Konan Bédié, former President Laurent Gbagbo and rebel leader Guillaume Soro. Some similarities: a camp that does not recognize the results, ethnic violence, roadblocks. But the situation is different. Until 2010, there was a power in the south (Gbagbo) and a rebellion in the north (pro-Ouattara). President Gbagbo refused to admit his electoral defeat to Ouattara in the election. If the violence has killed at least forty people in recent weeks, the toll was much heavier in 2010-2011 with 3,000 deaths and a country where it was impossible to travel. ” Everything is working. We cannot transpose the crisis of 2010-2011 ”, assures the party in power. “Unlike the Ouattara camp in 2010, the opposition has no army” in 2020, underlines Rodrigue Koné, political analyst. Issouf, 47, a tailor in the popular Adjame district, fled Abidjan in 2010 and his shop was looted. “This time, there are tensions, people are afraid, but there is nothing. ”

– Debate on participation

Ouattara was re-elected for a controversial third term on the score of 94.27% of the vote in the first round, the opposition having boycotted the ballot. The opposition believes that the participation rate is “8% or less” and that the president “Ouattara is not legitimate”. The turnout is 53.90% according to the electoral commission, but nearly a quarter of the polling stations were unable to open, depriving the possibility of voting for nearly 1.5 million registered voters.

– Opposition dead end

“The opposition’s strategy has shown its limits. By boycotting the election and creating the National Transitional Council (CNT), it stepped outside of the institutional framework, ”explains Rodrigue Koné. For the ruling party, “the opposition knew they were going to lose so they never wanted to go to the elections.” Some leaders are arrested or on the run, others, including former President Henri Konan Bédié, are stranded at their homes. “The CNT is really isolated. Their approach is seen as a hopeless adventure, ”said Sylvain N’Guessan, political analyst. The opposition “seems to evolve in a parallel reality,” said a diplomat, who however stressed that discussions are open behind the scenes.

– Ouattara, that strong?

“There is only dialogue to get out of this situation of political crisis”, analyzes Mr. N’Guessan, despite the fact that the opposition is divided and weak. “Ouattara could form a government of national unity and agree to reform the electoral commission” with a view to the legislative elections, he continues. But first, “the opposition must recognize the victory of Alassane Ouattara,” says the government side. For the time being, President Ouattara has taken a firm stance towards opponents. However, he must come out of the quagmire and regain the confidence of the international community, which did not appreciate his candidacy for a third term.

– The Gbagbo case

From the source of the presidency, Ouattara should allow the “return as soon as possible” to Côte d’Ivoire of ex-president Laurent Gbagbo, always popular, who is awaiting in Belgium a possible appeal from the International Criminal Court, but also … a passport. We appreciated in the presidency that Gbagbo did not call for “civil disobedience” like the rest of the opposition and was unfavorable to the participation of the cadres of his party in the CNT. It remains to be seen what role the former president wants to play. “His voice can carry,” says Rodrigue Koné.

– The Soro case

“Soro committed suicide politically” with his call for an uprising of the army which was followed by no effect. The presidency does not intend to give him any gift: “If he comes home it is to go to prison. Soro, who had managed to swap the rebel costume for that of a politician (former Prime Minister and President of the Assembly) is once again a rebel. His call from abroad now earned him diplomatic enmities. His relatives in Côte d’Ivoire are in prison and he could not demonstrate that he had a base ready to support him.