O Itaú Unibanco announced, this Monday (12), a review of the IPCA and GDP projections for 2022. The forecast of the official inflation indicator in the country had a reduction of 1 percentage point, from 7% in the previous projection to 6%.
“Lower inertia contributes to reducing upside risks, but core disinflation will still be slow, especially with persistent service dynamics,” the institution said in a note.
For 2023, the bank maintained its inflation projection at 5.3% – still outside the ceiling of the target pursued by the Central Bank, of 4.75%.
In relation to GDP, the forecast for 2022 was from 2.2% to 2.5%, due “to the robust growth of the 1st semester and the beginning of tracking for the 3rd quarter”. Despite the improvement in the short term, Itaú points out that “the fundamentals continue to indicate a slowdown in economic activity”.
For next year, the projection is for expansion of 0.5% (compared to 0.2%), amid the improvement in the statistical burden.
“Fiscal sustainability will continue to be a relevant challenge. This is not a concern with the fiscal 2022 numbers, but with the trajectory that seems to be contracted for the future. The next government will have to decide on the continuity of the newly implemented aid and tax cuts, in addition to the fiscal framework that will be valid ahead, in an emerging economy with high public debt and high interest rates”, the bank communicated.
“We estimate a primary surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2022 (0.3%, previously), a deficit of 1.5% in 2023 (compared to a deficit of 2.0%) and gross debt at 78% and 82% of GDP. this year and next, respectively,” he concluded.
Source: CNN Brasil
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