Itamaraty assesses the impact on the war in Ukraine and China’s role in possible mediation

Itamaraty assesses that an escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict could have an impact on the war in Ukraine and further highlight China’s role as a mediator in international issues.

The assessment, made in a reserved manner by important Brazilian foreign policy makers, takes into account that Israel will inevitably respond with heavy military actions in the Gaza Strip to respond to the Hamas attacks over the weekend.

There is enormous disbelief among experienced diplomats in key positions that the Benjamin Netanyahu government will directly engage in negotiations to release Israeli hostages or for some kind of ceasefire.

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This role, in the evaluation of Itamaraty sources heard by the CNN , it could be up to neighboring countries – such as Saudi Arabia – or China, with some kind of tacit approval from Netanyahu. In any case, the loss of life of at least some of the hostages – perhaps even used as human shields – is seen as an almost inevitable scenario.

China’s role is closely watched. Beijing, together with Russia, diverged from the United States and prevented a consensus this Sunday (8) at the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

Now, China is seen in Brasília as part of possible mediation with the Palestinians over the hostages or larger actions. At Itamaraty, we remember the bridge made by the Chinese for the historic reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in April.

This aspect is considered new on the international level and demonstrates a relative weakening of the United States as the sole guarantor of political agreements in the geopolitical arena.

Another point of attention at Itamaraty is the effects on the war in Ukraine. A diplomat heard by the CNN said privately: “To Volodymyr Zelensky [presidente da Ucrânia]it’s the worst that could have happened.”

For several reasons: American public opinion may find Washington’s involvement in two simultaneous fronts of conflict dangerous, there may be some compromise in the transfer of military resources (such as anti-aircraft defense systems) to Ukraine and discussions about the principle of territorial inviolability may be shaken.

On this last point, the rhetorical question used by Brazilian diplomats is the following: why is the world so scandalized just by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is indeed very serious, while Israeli settlements have continued to advance in recent years on territories in the West Bank claimed by the Palestine?