Brazilian economic activity should show a better performance in February than in January, predicts the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea).
The institute expects industrial production to grow by 1.4% from January to February, after a 2.4% decline in the previous month. The volume sold by retail trade would rise 1.2%, compared to a high of 0.8%.
If extended retail is considered, which includes the vehicle and construction material segments, the hike in February would be 1.3%, after a drop of 0.3%. The volume of services provided would increase by 1.5%, after a reduction of 0.1%, already discounting seasonal effects.
All projections are based on the results of monthly surveys carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE): Monthly Industrial Survey – Physical Production; Monthly Trade Survey; and Monthly Service Survey.
“The recent performance of economic activity indicators has shown some instability. After the acceleration seen in the last two months of last year, reflected in the increase of 0.5% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the fourth quarter, most productive segments suffered accommodation in January 2022 – a month marked by the strong advance of new cases of the omicron variant of covid-19”, noted the Letter of Conjuncture released by the Directorate of Macroeconomic Studies and Policies of Ipea this Wednesday, 30.
The institute predicts that the GDP Monitor, calculated by the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), will advance by 1% in February compared to January, “which improves the prospects for the GDP result in the first quarter of 2022”, says Ipea.
The GDP Monitor – anticipating the trend for Brazilian economic activity based on the same data sources and methodology used by the IBGE in the official calculation of the National Accounts – had a decrease of 1.4% in January compared to December.
“Among the main productive sectors, the industry continues to face the most challenging scenario. Problems related to global production chains and the high costs of international freight continue to be important obstacles to production growth. In addition, while electricity prices remain high, the war in Ukraine has led to an increase in international oil prices.
Source: CNN Brasil
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