A projection made by economist André Braz, coordinator of the Consumer Price Index at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNN shows that the IPCA-15 (National Index of Consumer Prices 15) should have a high of 0.10% to 0.15% in July, compared to June this year.
The official preview of this month’s inflation will be released this Tuesday (26), at 9 am, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
According to the economist, the index should not have a large increase due to reductions in the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS), whose rate was limited to 17% and 18% by a national law.
The main highlight, as indicated by Braz, should be the drop in the price of electricity and gasoline, stimulated by the reduction of the state tax.
However, the coordinator of the Consumer Price Index at FGV emphasizes that the result will not yet represent a full drop, as it only shows what was captured up to mid-July.
“Gasoline should show a drop of 8% and the energy rate should be around 5%, but the drops will not stop there. What could be captured in this IPCA-15 does not materialize 100%, so only a part will be represented. This will cause the IPCA to drop significantly compared to last month. This is because the reduction in ICMS will be more noticeable than in the IPCA-15, as this indicator only collects information from the middle of the month”, he says.
On the other hand, according to the economist, food will be an upward factor in the July indicator.
Braz points out that the items that should have the most impact are milk, which goes through the off-season, wheat, due to the conflict in Ukraine, and coffee, which has not yet recovered from the crop failure due to weather events in 2021.
“Breakfast will be a highlight of the rise in this IPCA-15. The impact will be more noticeable on the part of milk and dairy products, since it rains little in winter and the condition of the pastures worsens a lot. Wheat will continue to be impacted as the war between Ukraine and Russia is not over. In addition to these two, coffee will also appear with a certain prominence, as there is still a reflection of last year’s crop failure”, comments Braz.
This Monday (25), the Central Bank’s (BC) Focus Bulletin revised its inflation forecast for this year, which fell for the fourth time in a row, from 7.54% to 7.30%. However, for 2023, the expectation is for an increase from 5.2% to 5.3%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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