International Energy Agency: There will be no shortage of oil in the short term

Oil will not run out of oil in the short term despite Russia’s growing isolation as demand slows and production rises in other countries, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced today.

“A steady increase in production elsewhere (outside Russia), combined with a slowdown in demand growth, especially in China, is expected to prevent any acute shortage of supply in the short term,” the agency said in its monthly oil report.

Despite the current uncertainties, the agency also notes that while volatility remains significant in the market, prices are evolving in the range of less than $ 10 per barrel above $ 100.

The IEA expects demand to increase by 1.8 million barrels per day this year, to a total of 99.4 million barrels per day. But growth is expected to slow over the year, as global growth slows, pump prices rise and strict lockdowns return to China.

However, the organization draws attention to the summer, with the period of large car trips to North America and the restoration of air traffic. If refineries fail to meet this rate, there may be an impact on consumers.

As for the offer, the agency points to a growing isolation of Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, while the West is considering imposing an embargo and the big real estate companies are abandoning Russian oil.

“After a reduction in supply of almost 1 million barrels per day in April, losses could increase to almost 3 million barrels per day during the second half of this year,” the report predicts.

But the IAE is counting on increasing volumes coming from the US and Middle Eastern countries to offset these losses. He believes that world production outside Russia will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day from May to December.

Source: AMPE