Inflation expectations among US consumers – Commerzbank

It seems less and less likely that the dramatic increase in long -term inflation expectations among US consumers, measured by the University of Michigan for the second consecutive month, is actually an random isolated case – a measurement error. The president of the FED, Jay Powell, recently dismissed him as such. On Friday, the results of the second round of April surveys were published, confirming what the first April survey and the two March surveys had already shown: the inflation expectations of US consumers have shot themselves. In comparison, the increase in long-term inflation expectations during post-corone inflation of 2021/22 was insignificant, says Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of Currency Research and Raw Matters of Commerzbank.

The inflation expectations of US consumers are fired again

“The point is that inflation expectations are one of the main causes of inflation. If they increase, the Fed will not be able to ignore the inflationary shock induced by tariffs. When inflation expectations are high – especially when long -term inflation expectations are high – such shock will carry even higher inflation if the Fed does nothing about it. The fed does not intervene.

“Just last week, for example, the governor of the FED, Christopher Waller, said that the US Central Bank should reduce its key interest rate if US tariff a high unemployment now or risk consequences still worse later. “

“The long -term inflation expectations based on the market show no corresponding effect. On the contrary, they fell slightly when the chaos of the tariff began. Unlike the consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan, the market clearly assumes that the Fed will continue to control inflation. Not every month, but in the long term. Given the latest presidential criticisms to the Fed, I am not so sure of that. I don’t think consumers’ opinion is implarable. “