Ibovespa could pass 130 thousand points in 2023, says BofA survey

A Bank of America survey, released this Tuesday (18), carried out with 32 Latin American funds, with approximately US$ 76 billion under management, points out that the Brazilian market has room to rise after the 2022 elections and more investors want to invest in shares in Brazil.

The October edition of the “LatAm Fund Manager Survey” points out that 66% of respondents estimate that the Ibovespa will end 2023 above 130 thousand points, with the energy, discretionary consumption and financial sectors among the favorites.

Commodities continue to be the segment in which the industry is most interested, but 40% do not believe that the possible stimuli coming from China will be enough to boost the price of raw materials.

In the domestic environment, almost 80% of executives said they were worried about the fiscal issue after the conclusion of the elections in Brazil. In the macro environment, 56% projected that Brazil’s GDP growth should be between 1% and 2% in 2023.

Regarding the Selic rate, most respondents expect it to end the next year below 11.75%, and only 16% expect the basic interest rate below 10% in this period. For the real, half of the agents expect a quotation above R$5.11 per dollar at the end of 2023, while less than 10% see the US currency at below R$4.81.

The survey found that 68% of respondents plan to increase their capital allocation to the Brazilian equity market in the next six months, the highest level since the BofA survey began in 2018.

According to Luciano Sobral, chief economist at Neo Investimentos, 130 thousand points is not such a good result. “This means an increase of 12.5% ​​in relation to the rate we have today, that is, investors will not have such a large gain, when compared to an expectation of a 13.20% increase in the CDI, in 2023”, he says. .

However, he points out that, in terms of Latin America, the stock market in Brazil is one of the least fragile, as well as in Mexico. “Foreign investors will continue to invest in the Brazilian stock system. The market is excited about Brazil, as they see the country’s economy with good eyes, compared to other emerging countries”, he explains.

For Pedro Paulo Silveira, director of management at Nova Futura Investimentos, there is a concern with the fiscal issue, since there are many issues that will arise from next year.

“We forecast GDP growth of 1% for 2023 and inflation of 4.7%. The Selic should end at 11.5% and our exchange rate for the real is R$5.10. Our projection for the Ibovespa is 135 thousand points”, he bets.

Silveira says that the market is betting on the country’s economy, but with caution. “We will see an increase in allocation in the stock market, but it will depend on the situation of the global economy and the elections in Brazil”.