An unprecedented coalition of the opposition, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the many undecided: Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban is playing his political survival in the parliamentary elections held today in the country, after 12 years of “anti-liberals”.
Opposite him, a diverse six-party coalition determined to overthrow the “authoritarian” 58-year-old leader.
Orban, who has been accused by Brussels of numerous attacks on the rule of law, has silenced the judiciary and the media during his three consecutive terms in office, while promoting a super-conservative vision for society.
The polling stations opened at 06:00 (local time, 07:00 Greek time) and will close at 19:00 (20:00 Greek time), while it is expected that the turnout will be significant and will exceed 70%.
The opposition coalition is in the polls a short distance from Orban’s Fidesz party. According to the latest Zavecz Research poll, Fidesz leads the opposition with 39% versus 36%, while one-fifth of voters have not yet decided who to vote for.
Opposition leader Peter Marki-Zai, a 49-year-old conservative, says Hungarians now have to choose between East and West. Orban has turned Hungary towards Russia, he explains, eroding democratic rights and driving the Central European country away from the European Union to which it belongs.
“Orban has become a national disgrace: let us wash away this disgrace in the name of Hungary,” Marki-Zai said at the last rally in Budapest on Saturday.
“We are on the verge of victory,” he added, applauded by a crowd that defied the cold and rain. However, he admitted that “the battle is hard” after “12 years of brainwashing”.
For his part, Orban, 58, defends Ukraine’s interests by rejecting EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
He has also accused his opponents of trying to drag Hungary into the Ukraine war, a charge they deny.
“The left has signed an agreement with the Ukrainians. If they win, arms shipments will begin to be sent to Ukraine, shut off the gas taps and destroy the economy,” Orban wrote on his Facebook page the day before yesterday.
“Anything can happen”
On the streets of Budapest, passers-by say they are hoping for a change of era. “Twelve years is too much, whoever the leader is, it’s crazy!” Says Laszlo Takacs, a 62-year-old coach.
However, the elections will not be judged in the capital, where the victory of the opposition seems certain, but rather in the 20 to 30 regions with high percentages of undecided.
Peter Markey-Zay has been touring the area in recent weeks listening to residents, taking selfies and handing out autographs, hoping to crack down on government “propaganda”.
On the contrary, “Victor Orban was almost invisible on the field,” said Andras Poulay of the opposition Publicus polling institute. “In fact, he only participated in events with his most loyal fans,” he told AFP.
Publicus’s latest research shows the two camps are chest-to-chest, while others give a slight lead to the ruling Fidesz.
But because of the electoral system, the opposition will have to “win by 3 to 4 points” to have a majority in parliament, he recalled. “It is very difficult to predict the outcome of the vote. Anything can happen,” he said.
Aware of the stakes, Victor Orban yesterday, Friday, called on voters to go to the polls today and not to repeat the mistake of 2002: he was then outgoing prime minister and lost the election, although he was considered the favorite.
“War changed everything”
Mainly because the conflict in neighboring Ukraine completely changed the data.
“War broke out and war changed everything,” Orban said on Friday.
“Peace versus war”, the equation is simple according to him.
On the one hand, a government that refuses to hand over weapons to Ukraine and vote on sanctions that would deprive the Hungarians of Russian oil and gas, both valuable to them. On the other hand, an opposition that is, as Orban says, warlike.
Although this reason finds a response in the province, the closeness that Orban cultivated 12 years ago with “the invader” Vladimir Putin can be turned against him, Pulay underlines.
“At the polls on Sunday, the question will be clear: Putin or Europe?”
The invasion of Ukraine “underlines the need to fight authoritarianism,” the former US Secretary of State wrote on Twitter.
LOATKI +, a “sick” referendum
In addition to electing their MPs, Hungarians are being asked to answer four questions about the recent anti-LGBT + law, which bans people under the age of 18 from talking about “gender reassignment and homosexuality”.
“Mothers are women, fathers are men, let us leave our children alone and protect our families,” Orban likes to repeat.
NGOs, on the other hand, urged voters to “cancel” this “sick” referendum by putting two crosses instead of one.
Source: AMPE
Source: Capital
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