A study by researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, found that human actions could increase the likelihood of future extreme heat waves, such as those seen in recent weeks in Europe.
According to the research, greenhouse gases are the main reason for rising temperatures in the past and will likely continue to be the main contributing factor, with simulations showing that extreme heatwave events could increase by more than 30 percentage points over the next few years.
And what contributes to this greater probability are the emissions of gases in the atmosphere.
In the research, scientists studied the physical processes of internal variability, such as patterns of atmospheric circulation and external forcing, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
atmospheric circulation
Using data from previous observations, the researchers identified that three patterns of atmospheric circulation occurred during a 2021 heat wave: the North Pacific pattern, the Arctic-Pacific Canada pattern, and the North American pattern.
Atmospheric circulation patterns show how air flows and influences surface air temperatures around the planet, which can change due to factors such as natural heating of the Sun and internal atmospheric variability, as well as the Earth’s rotation. .
The settings are responsible for the daily weather as well as the long-term patterns that make up the weather.
According to researcher at the Southern Guangdong Marine Science and Engineering Laboratory and head of the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography at the South China Sea Oceanology Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chunzai Wang, the research revealed that “ the North Pacific pattern and the Canada Arctic-Pacific pattern repeated with the development and mature phases of the heat wave, while the North American pattern coincided with the decay and eastward movements of the heat wave”.
“This suggests that the heat wave originated in the North Pacific and Arctic, while the North American pattern ushered in a new heat wave.”
The extreme heat wave that hit western North America in late June 2021 resulted in hundreds of deaths and a massive death of sea creatures off the coast, as well as a series of wildfires.
Even with patterns of atmospheric circulation repeating without triggering an extreme heat wave — as has happened before, the researchers wanted to determine whether the 2021 event was influenced by human activities.
To do this, the team used internationally selected, tested and evaluated models from the World Climate Research Program, specifically the Phase 6 Comparison of Detection Attribution Models models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Wang explained in a statement that “from the CMIP6 models, we found that global warming associated with greenhouse gases is likely to influence these three variabilities of the atmospheric circulation pattern, which in turn led to an event of most extreme heat wave.”
According to the WMO, concentrations of greenhouse gases, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification are signs that human activities are causing planetary-scale changes on land, ocean and atmosphere, with harmful ramifications. and lasting for sustainable development and ecosystems.
Wang points out that “if appropriate measures are not taken, the likelihood of extreme heat waves occurring will increase and further impact the ecological balance as well as sustainable social and economic development.”
Source: CNN Brasil
