Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD trades slightly lower and closes a losing week after the US PCE numbers.

  • XAU/USD sees a slight decline, remaining slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback.
  • Key indicators such as the RSI and MACD show moderate buying momentum as the bulls consolidate the December rally.

In the session on Friday, the XAU/USD pair was quoted at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a weekly loss of 0.55%. After reaching $2,135 in December, buyers have taken a pause, suggesting a neutral to bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite the momentum seen on the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak.

In addition, the recovery of the Dollar, driven by the adjustment of markets' bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the resistance of the US economy, is putting downward pressure on metals. On Friday, soft US December Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) numbers did not fuel a significant reaction to market expectations about the Fed meeting next week. At the moment, markets place the start of the easing cycle in May versus March, but the Fed's tone could change these expectations.

XAU/USD levels to watch

Technical indicators on the daily chart, namely the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the metal's positioning relative to its 20, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMA), paint a mixed picture. Even though the RSI is showing a negative slope and is currently in negative territory, the price manages to stay above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs. This is indicative of a bullish position on the broader time frame, and the recent pullback could be explained by the bulls taking a breather after taking the price to a high of $2,135 in December.

On the four-hour chart, momentum indicators present a weak but bullish tone. The four-hour RSI is showing a negative slope but is currently in positive territory, while the four-hour moving average convergence divergence (MACD) continues to produce flat red bars, again suggesting bearish positioning.

XAU/USD

Overview
Latest price today 2018.63
Today Daily Change -1.53
Today Daily variation % -0.08
Today daily opening 2020.16
Trends
daily SMA20 2034.39
daily SMA50 2028.83
SMA100 daily 1977.49
SMA200 Journal 1964.39
Levels
Previous daily high 2025.39
Previous daily low 2009.65
Previous weekly high 2058.67
Previous weekly low 2001.9
Previous Monthly High 2144.48
Previous monthly low 1973.13
Daily Fibonacci 38.2 2019.38
Fibonacci 61.8% daily 2015.66
Daily Pivot Point S1 2011.41
Daily Pivot Point S2 2002.66
Daily Pivot Point S3 1995.67
Daily Pivot Point R1 2027.15
Daily Pivot Point R2 2034.14
Daily Pivot Point R3 2042.89

XAU/USD daily chart

Source: Fx Street

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