Gold Price forecast: Xau/USD beaten but not dejected before US PMI data.

  • The price of gold bounces from minimums of several days as the bargain hunt begins early on Wednesday.
  • The US dollar reverts recovery profits as investors doubt the intentions of President Trump.
  • The price of gold seems like an operation of ‘buying in the falls’ as the RSI relaxes and pushes towards the upward zone.

The price of gold has bounced from the fall to minimum of three days about $ 3,310 on Wednesday, since buyers regain control amid a recovery of the US dollar (USD) that fades before the publication of the preliminary data of the US Business PMI.

The price of gold could see a resurgence of purchases at lower levels

The price of gold has experienced a volatile negotiation this week, reaching new historical maximums at $ 3,500 before facing a rejection and falling towards the level of $ 3,300. The record streak in the price of gold was mainly backed by market anxiety about the loss of independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the verbal attacks of President Donald Trump to the president of the FED, Jerome Powell.

The approach moved from the commercial war between the US and China to Trump’s threat to the Fed at the beginning of the week, exacerbating the pain of the US dollar while driving the price of gold to new historical maximums. However, the tide changed in favor of the dollar in the American trade on Tuesday, since USD buyers were rescued by the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, who said in a closed event that he expects “a decapal” in the commercial war of President Donald Trump with China in a “very close future.”

The hopes of relieving commercial tensions between the US and China fueled a positive change in the feeling of risk and a recovery of the US dollar, reflecting an ideal ‘change of trend on Tuesday’. Investors took this as an excuse to ensure profits in their long gold positions, since the bright metal corrected up to $ 120 from the historical maximums to settle about $ 3,380.

The downward correction of gold extends to Asian trade while investors digest Trump’s night decline in the commercial war with China and Powell’s dismissal. The US president said the final tariff rate with China would “substantially” from the current 145%, but it will not be so high, “it will not be so high.”

He added that he is willing to reach a commercial agreement with China, showing its opening to negotiations.

However, the fall in the price of gold is still cushioned since the USD stops its recovery impulse while the markets question Trump’s intentions, citing them as highly unpredictable.

The attention now focuses on the preliminary data of the Global and US Global S&P S&P services for a greater commercial impetus. The US PMI data for April will be examined closely in search of new signals on the health of the US economy. The data could help markets to alter their expectations about the interest rate cuts of the Fed this year.

Fed funds faced sales late on Tuesday, since investors reduced the magnitude of expected rates cuts by the end of the year to around 81 basic points (PB).

Technical analysis of gold price: Daily graphics

The daily chart shows that the 14 -day relative force (RSI) index has relaxed from the territory of overcompra, returning to the upward zone.

The last fall in the leading indicator supports the new fall in the price of gold. However, buyers remain optimistic while the level of $ 3,300 is firm.

If the correction is deepened, the price of gold could challenge the simple mobile average (SMA) of 21 days at $ 3,163.

Before that, the $ 3,200 barrier could provide some support to buyers.

On the contrary, if the upward trend resumes, the price of gold could resume the threshold of $ 3,400 on its path to the historical maximums of $ 3,500.

Economic indicator

PMI Global S&P manufacturing

The manufacturing purchase managers index (PMI), published by Markit Economicscapture business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of the total GDP, the PMI is an important indicator of the business conditions and the economic conditions of the United States. Reading above 50 implies that the economy is expanding, so investors understand as a bunder for the dollar, while a result below 50 points for economic contraction, and weighs negatively in the currency.


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Source: Fx Street

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