Germany: The ethno-populists are on a path of disintegration

The 2022 election results for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party were disappointing. Just a coincidence or an indication of divisive tendencies in the party?

In recent years, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been represented in all 16 local German parliaments. The party leadership claimed that the AfD was not just a protest movement or a regional party for the former East Germany, but had now established itself as a rising political force throughout the country. But the results of the local elections in 2022 so far seem to refute it.

In the Schleswig-Holstein elections, which took place on May 8, the AfD remained below the 5% threshold set by the electoral law for entry into Parliament. It was the first time that the ethno-populist party failed to get re-elected to a local parliament. One week later, in the local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, the AfD garnered just 5.4% to narrowly enter the local Düsseldorf Parliament, losing almost two percentage points. But in the first local elections of the year, which were held on March 27 in the small state of Zaar, he won only 5.7%. Does all this mean that the “paint has passed” of the ethno-populists?

Differences between East and West

Speaking to DW, science politician Manes Weiskircher says that would be an early conclusion and recalls that in last September’s parliamentary elections, the AfD managed to get re-elected with a double-digit percentage (10.3%) in the Federal Parliament. The last few months may not have been the best time to discuss the refugee issue, which the AfD has traditionally been betting on, but Weiskircher believes that could change at any time, for example if financial problems escalate or “if the “At the moment, there is a positive attitude of the public towards the refugees from Ukraine.”

AfD is currently dealing with itself. Party leader Tino Kroupala said after the North Rhine-Westphalia election that he was “delighted” with the result, but that there was still enough time “to reach double-digit voting in the old German states as well”. But Manes Weisskircher believes that “East-West differences in AfD electoral performance not only remain, but also intensify.” He believes that in the former West Germany, ethno-populists “do not find an alternative strategy to mobilize voters when the immigration issue is not on the agenda”.

The war in Ukraine and relations with Putin

Weisskircher was not surprised that the AfD was left out of Parliament in the North German state of Schleswig-Holstein. Vladimir Putin’s aggressive war in Ukraine puts the party in a difficult position, when it is even known that a section of the AfD applauds Putin’s policy, as is the case with Marin Le Pen’s party in neighboring France. Managing Putin’s policy is another issue that divides the AfD itself, as it does with dealing with the pandemic or the rather extremist Querdenker movement. However, there are also internal party conflicts in the economic and social policy, not to mention the disputes over the occupation of top party positions.

The latest “split” was caused by the departure of J Μόrg Moiten, a former co-chair of the AfD, along with Tino Kroupalas. Today, even the re-election of Kroupalas himself at the next party congress in June, in Riza, Saxony, seems uncertain. “The series of AfD electoral successes has stopped with Tino Kroupalas. The party can neither keep united nor convince the voters,” complains Joanna Kotar, a member of the AfD presidency.

Krupala himself insists he will run again for the party presidency and refutes the criticism, noting that he is the only East German in the AfD presidency, so it is unlikely he will be responsible for the unfortunate election results in the western German states. “We need to improve our image, so I ask for discipline,” he warns, but is unlikely to find a response in most party members. If he fails to get re-elected, it may be Bjorn Hecke’s turn to run for office. He is the leader of the party in the state of Thuringia and, admittedly, one of the most extreme ethno-populists of the AfD.

Marcel Firstenau

Edited by: Giannis Papadimitriou

Source: Deutsche Welle