The majority of Germans is in favor of the country’s faster independence from Russian energy, reveals a poll by the YouGov Institute. Interruption of supply natural gas from Russia would mean shortages of up to 40% of energy required for industry, warns independent research.
According to the results of the poll, 64% of Germans would like the immediate promotion of the measures of the European Union, which provides for a reduction of gas consumption by 30% by 2030. The opposite view is expressed by 24%. In addition, 59% of Germans approve of the extension of the operation of nuclear power plants, while 30% have the opposite view. 49% of respondents would support, among other things, a ban on gas and oil imports from Russia, even if it had an impact on the German economy. On the contrary, such a choice rejects 39%.
The real consequences of a possible interruption in Russian gas supplies, however, remain unclear. Aurora Energy Research, a consulting firm, concludes in a study that by March 2023, when winter was relatively mild, two to five billion cubic meters would be missing, despite German consumption at 82 billion cubic meters for in 2022, has already decreased compared to previous years.
The estimated shortage may sound manageable, says company expert Casimir Lorentz, but stresses that “the industry should be significantly reduced” and many gas-dependent plants should even close. Who would stop procuring would be either a political decision or a market regulation, Lorenz explains, and is in favor of a second option. The shortage of gas would lead to a price increase to a point that not all companies could afford, he says.
But if the winter were particularly severe, the shortage would reach 10-12 billion cubic meters and the industry would lose up to 40% of the amount needed to operate it, the researchers estimate.
Regarding the possibilities of reducing dependence on Russian gas in the short term, Aurora reports the increased supply from Norway and Azerbaijan and the purchase of liquefied natural gas LNG from the USA. The first floating LNG terminal could be ready by 2022, according to Mr. Lorentz, who, however, does not consider that there are other supplier countries in the short term.
Source: News Beast
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