Remember: Not only were all the polls giving Joe Biden the largely winner with a six to ten point lead, they were hinting that the Democrats were going to expand their majority in the House and conquer it in the Senate. The experts were cautious in their public expression because, they said, they had been traumatized by the election of Donald Trump in 2016, which he did not see coming but, in private, they claimed to have taken all the precautions. so as not to repeat this fiasco. It would indeed be a “blue wave” – blue being the color of the Democratic Party and red that of the Republican Party.
Of vague, there was none; not even a wave in Congress since, far from taking over the Senate, the Democrats have lost seats in the House. Republicans have consolidated their majority in many state legislatures, which will allow them to retrace electoral district boundaries to their advantage. The presidential election appeared, for its part, to evoke, on the night of November 3 to 4, what had happened four years ago. At a Democrats’ dinner on election night in Washington, I saw the growing concern with each new number being announced: Florida’s loss had disappointed, but those were Pennsylvania’s first results. which made my hosts blow a wind of panic.
The establishment’s angry opposition
Since then, Joe Biden has won, but it is a snatch victory, a bitter victory as the winner will face a Republican majority in the Senate that will not give him any gifts, and a victory that will not rid him. a Donald Trump who, if he was not a sore loser, could leave the White House with his head held high. Elected in 2016 by a few tens of thousands of votes in the right places, Donald Trump has not ceased, during these four years, to go from scandal to controversy; he faced the raging opposition of the entire establishment, for which the mainstream press was the spokesperson; his handling of the coronavirus epidemic ended in a health disaster and the end of his term was marked by the worst race riots in half a century.
He was given a long way ahead. Here he brings together three million more votes than in 2016, which improves his score among blacks and Latinos. Of course, he is defeated but honorably by being able to argue, with solid reasons, that, in the absence of an epidemic, he would have been elected on the basis of the excellence of the economic situation.
Trump and Trumpism are therefore not dead. Trump, outside the White House, will be able to establish himself as the “godfather” of the Republican Party thanks to the enthusiastic and unwavering support of the militants. The caciques who rebelled would be assured of being swept away in the party’s next primaries. They will live with its breath constantly on the back of their necks; they will have to remain faithful to its orientations. His son tweeted two days ago to note that the Republican leaders did not support his father: a few minutes later, two of them complied … A pattern that could be renewed in the coming months. The Republican Senate will be a Trumpist Senate to the great misfortune of the new president who will not be able to vote for any of the major reforms to which he would like to attach his name. In addition, a firmly conservative Supreme Court will also trim its wings.
Trump, a historical figure in political life
Even if Trump were to retire from politics, which I doubt, he would have proven by November 3, 2020 that doing politics his way pays off. Young Republican elected officials are already imitating his aggressiveness, his distanced relation to the truth and his contempt for the sacred cows of their party. They may think that, without the flaws in Trump’s personality, Trumpism could be a path to power. Imagine a disciplined Trump, who doesn’t spend his weekends golfing, who surrounds himself with a competent team, who is less susceptible and less prone to insult and argument, and who knows how to show empathy. Getting rid of it would have been much more difficult.
The conclusion may be surprising for some, but, in any case, Donald J. Trump will be a historical figure in American political life that he will have transformed in depth just like Ronald Reagan, exactly forty years ago. There are defeats that sound like victories. And then, 2024, it’s not that far. Revenge is certainly a feeling he cherishes …
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